[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111117
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
717 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has been repositioned, based on
long-loop satellite imagery, and based on the 700 mb trough
positions in global models. The wave is moving toward the Cabo
Verde Islands, from 20N southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots.
Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area from 10N to 20N from
26W eastward. This wave is forecast to move westward quickly
during the next several days. Some slow development is possible
during the weekend, when the system is expected to be a few
hundred miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure center
is along the wave near 14N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 11N to 15N between 47W and 54W. Some
slight development of this system still is possible on Wednesday.
Upper level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation by Thursday. This disturbance is expected to
move slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the
next several days.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from the eastern
part of the Dominican Republic southward, moving W 15 knots.
Rainshowers are possible between 60W and 70W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has been repositioned to be
along 83W/84W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 knots. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 17N northward from 80W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal near
13N17W to 09N25W, 12N40W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that
is along the 49W/50W tropical wave, to 10N54W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers are within 300 nm on either side of
the line that runs from 07N12W to 05N21W, to 11N40W, to 13N47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers Texas, Mexico, and the Gulf
of Mexico, from 20N northward into East Texas between 94W and
102W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong
rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 87W westward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in SE Georgia/NW
Florida. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
25N76W, near Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 180 nm of the Florida west coast. area
upper level cyclonic circulation center that is near 25N76W,

High pressure to the north of the Gulf of Mexico will support
moderate to fresh NE to E winds through Friday. A trough will
move westward from Florida, across the Gulf of Mexico this
weekend, accompanied by widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms.
It is possible that the environmental conditions for the trough
may become more favorable for development into a tropical
cyclone, when the system moves through the Florida Straits and
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Friday, and during the weekend.
This disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall
and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across
Florida by late Friday, and continuing into the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near
21N62W, across Puerto Rico, to a point that is about 200 nm
to the south of Jamaica, to the border of Nicaragua and Costa
Rica. Rainshowers are possible between 60W and 70W.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia,
across Panama and beyond southern Costa Rica, beyond 85W, into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are to the south of the line that runs from 10N76W at
the coast of Colombia, to 12N84W at the coast of Nicaragua.

High pressure N-NE of the region will maintain moderate trade
winds, except pulsing to fresh to strong in the S central
Caribbean Sea. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave will reach
the central Caribbean Sea by early Thursday, then into the
western Caribbean Sea by Friday night. A strong tropical wave
will approach the tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the eastern
Caribbean Sea by Sunday, with gusty winds and squalls.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 35N66W cyclonic circulation
center, to 30N74W, to a Bahamas-area upper level cyclonic
circulation center that is near 25N76W, and eventually toward
Jamaica. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in SE
Georgia/NW Florida. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong rainshowers are within 250 nm on either side of
the line that runs from Bermuda to 25N70W to SE Cuba and Jamaica.
A surface trough is along 25N68W to 19N70W in the Dominican
Republic. Ship reports have been indicating that tropical storm-
force wind gusts have been occurring in some of the heavier
squalls. Limited development of this disturbance is expected
during the next few days, due to only marginally conducive upper
level winds. The system is forecast to move very slowly, west-
northwestward, across the Bahamas. It is possible that the
environmental conditions may become more favorable for
development, when the system moves through the Florida Straits and
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Friday, and during the
weekend. This disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and
across Florida by late Friday, and continuing into the weekend.

An upper level trough extends from a 30N30W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 25N53W cyclonic circulation center, to 21N62W, toward
Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 720 nm to
the NW of the line that passes through 19N62W 24N44W 28N30W beyond
32N24W.

A surface trough, from eastern Cuba across the SE Bahamas and
Turks and Caicos, will move WNW slowly, across the basin through
the end of the week. The surface trough will reach the Florida
Peninsula on Friday, accompanied by widespread rainshowers and
thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will move northward, gradually,
in advance of the trough.

$$
MT
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