[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101108
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
708 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, at 10/0900 UTC, is near
43.4N 40.2W. Gabrielle is moving NE, or 55 degrees, 22 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 43N to
46N between 38W and 42W. Please read the latest NHC forecast/
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or the
website hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W, from 20N southward,
moving W 10 knots. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are
within 240 nm off the coast of Senegal from 13N to 16N. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 03N to 07N between
14W and 25W. The wave is expected to move westward quickly during
the next several days. Some slow development is possible late
this week, and during the weekend, when the system is several
hundred miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W, from 20N southward,
moving W 15 knots. A 1012 mb low is along the wave near 14N. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next few
days, before upper level winds become unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation. This system is expected to move westward,
slowly, across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, for the next several
days. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 10N to 17N between 40W and 51W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea, along 62W/63W,
from 18N southward, moving W 15 knots. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 300 nm on either side of the wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W, from 19N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Numerous strong rainshowers are
within 120 nm to the south of the NW corner of Cuba, in the
Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from
15N northward from Jamaica westward.

A tropical wave is inland, along 89W, from 21N southward, moving
W 10 knots. The wave passes through the Yucatan Peninsula, to
Guatemala, and El Salvador. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
within 60 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Senegal and Mauritania near 16N17W, to 11N23W, to 13N37W, to the
1012 mb low pressure center that is along the 46W tropical wave,
to 09N53W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 05N to 16N between 25W and 40W, and elsewhere from 10N
southward from 45W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers Mexico and
Texas, and the Gulf of Mexico from 20N northward between 93W and
103W. Isolated moderate rainshowers span the Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

Weak high pressure will continue just north of the western and
central Gulf through this week, maintaining gentle to moderate
easterly flow throughout. Stronger high will build in from the
northeast across Florida and the eastern Gulf through Fri allowing
for fresh northeast to east winds to exist over the eastern Gulf
and fresh to strong winds over the Straits of Florida. A trough is
expected to move across Florida from the Atlantic Fri and Fri
night and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend accompanied
by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center,
that is about 75 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico, southwestward, to
15N70W and 11N80W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 70W
eastward.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N, between 74W in Colombia,
beyond 85W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered strong
rainshowers cover the waters and coastal plains within 275 nm to
the SSE of Panama, reaching the eastern Pacific Ocean coast of
Colombia near 04N77W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 12N southward from 77W westward.

A surface ridge will remain to the north and northeast of area
through the remainder of the week. The ridge will maintain
moderate trade winds, except pulsing to fresh to strong in the
south central Caribbean Sea, and near the coast of Colombia,
through the next few days. A tropical wave that is near 62W, in the
eastern Caribbean Sea, will move across the rest of the eastern
Caribbean Sea through Wednesday, then across the central
Caribbean Sea from Wednesday night through Friday, and across the
western Caribbean Sea from Friday night through Saturday night. It
is possible that a stronger tropical wave may approach the
tropical N Atlc Ocean by the end of the upcoming weekend, with
gusty winds and squalls.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N75W, about
125 nm to the NE of the Abaco Islands in the Bahamas. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and
Hispaniola northward, across the Bahamas to 32N, between 70W and
Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover
parts of the SE Bahamas, from 20N to 25N between 67W and 74W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N northward
from 60W westward, and in the Gulf of Mexico, within 270 nm of the
west coast of Florida, from 27N southward.

An upper level trough passes through 32N50W to 24N57W, toward the
upper level cyclonic circulation center that is about 75 nm to
the NE of Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 20N
northward between 40W and 65W. A surface trough is along 67W/68W
from 17N to 26N. Little, if any, development of this weather
system is expected during the next few days, while it moves WNW
across the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. It is possible that
environmental conditions may become a little more conducive for
development when the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico during
the weekend. This disturbance will produce periods of gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall, across the Bahamas through Thursday,
and across Florida on Friday, and continuing into the weekend.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N31W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N
northward between Africa and 44W. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 18N northward between Africa and 40W.

Strong high pressure, centered north of the area, will expand
eastward through Wed night then weaken on Thu. A surface to low-
level inverted trough, that presently extends from near 23N67W to
across the central section of the Dominican Republic. The trough
will track WNW across the Bahamas and vicinity through Thu night
before reaching Florida Friday. The high pressure will weaken
during this time. The trough will be accompanied by scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, relatively weak
high pressure across the area will gradually lift northward
through the week in advance of the trough.

$$
MT
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