[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian, at 09/0300 UTC, is
near 52.1N 53.4W, or about 325 nm/600 km to the N of Cape Race in
Newfoundland. Dorian is moving ENE, or 60 degrees, 21 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds is 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Please
read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC, or the website hurricanes.gov, for more
details.

The center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, at 09/0300 UTC, is near
36.5N 49.3W. Gabrielle is moving N, or 360 degrees, 13 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers
are within 60 nm on either side of the line that runs from 36N50W
34N52W to 31N54W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from
30N to 33N between 54W and 62W. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC,
or the website hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N to 06N between 11W and
15W, and from 09N to 12N between land and 22W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N southward between Africa and
22W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W, from 20N
southward, moving W 20 knots. A 1011 mb low pressure center is
along the wave near 14N. Some slow development of this
system is possible during the next few days. The low pressure
center is forecast to move west-southwestward to westward, across
the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level winds are
forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation
by Thursday. Scattered strong rainshowers are from 14N to 17N
between 40W and 43W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 37W and 47W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W, from 14N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 13N southward, between 50W and 57W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W across Jamaica, from
19N southward, moving W 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 19N to 20N between 78W and 80W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 21N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Scattered strong rainshowers are in
the Gulf of Fonseca, and in neighboring parts of El Salvador,
Honduras, and Nicaragua. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere from 18N northward from 80W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near
14N17W, to 11N24W, to the 1011 mb low pressure center that is
along the 40W/41W tropical wave, to 09N48W. The ITCZ continues
from 09N48W, to 08N52W, 09N56W, to northern sections of Guyana.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N to
16N between 24W and 34W, and from 05N to 10N between 30W and 36W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere
from 14N southward between Africa and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level to upper level cyclonic circulation center is along
the coast of Texas, in the Deep South. Cyclonic wind flow covers
the Gulf of Mexico, Texas, and Mexico from 19N northward between
90W and 105W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 88W westward.

A surface ridge will prevail just N of the basin through the
week. The ridge will maintain gentle to moderate easterly wind
flow, except pulsing to fresh NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 33N52W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to 24N60W, to an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is
in the Caribbean Sea about 60 nm to the south of Puerto Rico, to
13N70W. A surface trough is along 23N67W to 19N64W to 16N61W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 14N to 17N between 58W and
67W.

A surface ridge will prevail N-NE of the basin through the week.
The ridge will maintain moderate trade winds, except pulsing to
fresh to strong in the S central Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 33N52W, to 24N60W, to an
upper level cyclonic circulation center that is in the Caribbean
Sea about 60 nm to the south of Puerto Rico, to 13N70W. A surface
trough is along 23N67W to 19N64W to 16N61W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 21N to 24N
between 54W and 57W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 20N to
30N between 50W and 70W, and from 14N to 17N between 58W and 67W.

A surface trough is along 29N40W, 26N43W, 21N45W. Rainshowers in
one cell are from 21N to 22N between 43W and 44W. Rainshowers are
possible within 180 nm to the east of the surface trough.

An upper level trough extends from a 36N11W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 27N29W cyclonic circulation center, to 20N38W.
Rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken low level clouds,
that are from 20N northward from 40W eastward.

A well defined low level trough will move from E to W across the
area during the week. It will be accompanied by scattered to
numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms. Relatively weak high
pressure, elsewhere across the area, will move northward
gradually through the week.

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net