[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071808
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
208 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Dorian is centered near 42.8N 64.9W at 07/1800 UTC or
140 nm SSW of Halifax Nova Scotia moving NE at 25 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 953 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 180 nm of the center and scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere in feeder bands north of 45N between 57W-
70W. Dorian will continue moving generally northeast with an
additional increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move
across central or eastern Nova Scotia this afternoon or this
evening, pass near or over Prince Edward Island tonight, and then
move near or over portions of Newfoundland and Labrador on Sunday.
See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for more
details.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is centered near 31.4N 45.2W at 07/1500
UTC or 1125 nm WSW of the Azores moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
well northwest of the center from 28N-32N between 44W-49W. A
northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected to
begin by this evening and continue through Sunday. Gabrielle is
then forecast to recurve toward the north and northeast on Monday
and Tuesday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave near the coast of Africa is along 13W and 20N
southward. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection in in
the vicinity of the wave axis and extends from 04N-15N between
16W-20W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 30W and
south of 19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb surface low is
embedded in the wave environment centered near 14N30W. Scattered
showers are noted to the NNW of the low from 15N-18N between 29W-
33W. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while the system
moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic
Ocean. The chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next
48 hours with this system is low.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 14N50W to 05N47W,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 150 nm on
either side of the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 68W and
south of 19N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted
across the northern portion of the wave.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 75W
and south of 18N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered showers are
noted across the northern portion of the wave also.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 12N16W
to the low pressure mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above
near 14N31W to 09N44W. The ITCZ is from 09N51W to 09N61W. Aside
from the convection mentioned in the section above, scattered
moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 08N-11N
between 35W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front enters the forecast area from the western
Atlantic across the Florida peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico
from 26N81W to 24N85W to 25N87W. A few showers are along the
vicinity of the boundary. In the Bay of Campeche, a thermal trough
from 22N90W to 18N93W has moved off the Yucatan Peninsula
producing scattered showers and tstorms 180 nm northeast of the
trough. High pressure is building across the far western Gulf,
centered near 26N92W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to
gentle winds across the basin.

A weakening cold front in the eastern Gulf will dissipate later
today. Weak high pressure will persist across the northwest Gulf
through early next week, with gentle to moderate winds expected.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scattered moderate convection is noted over the southwest
Caribbean due to the EPAC's monsoon trough proximity. This
activity is south of 10N between 77W-83W. Otherwise, upper level
ridging is keeping fair skies across most of the basin. Latest
scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades in the
central Caribbean, with light to gentle trades prevail elsewhere.

Weak ridging will prevail north of the area through early next
week. Winds in the south central Caribbean will increase slightly
Mon. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds are expected in most of the
region through mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian, Gabrielle and
two tropical waves moving across the basin.

A weakening cold front enters the west Atlantic waters near
30N74W and stretches to the coast of Florida near 27N80W.
Scattered showers are noted along this boundary. To the east, a
1016 mb surface high is near 26N69W. A surface trough extends
into the central Atlantic from 31N57W to 26N61W with scattered
showers. Another trough is in the central Atlantic from 20N54W to
17N63W in the Lesser Antilles. This trough is producing scattered
showers and thunderstorms from 16N-21N between 51W-57W and from
19N-22N between 58W-63W.

Large northerly swell from Hurricane Dorian will dominate the
waters mainly north of 28N this weekend. A return to tranquil
marine conditions is expected next week.

$$
MTorres
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