[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061813
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
213 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Dorian is centered near 36.2N 73.7W at 06/1800 UTC or
125 nm NE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving NE at 18 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the center and
scattered moderate convection is elsewhere in feeder bands from
34N-41N between 70W-75W. Dorian is moving toward the northeast
near 21 mph (34 km/h) and this general motion with an additional
increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move away from the
coast of North Carolina during the next several hours. The center
should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England
tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late
Saturday or Saturday night. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or the website
hurricanes.gov for more details.

Post Tropical Gabrielle regenerates into a Tropical Storm 06/1500
UTC is centered near 27.3N 38.7W or 1005 nm SW of the Azores
moving NW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is well north of the center from
27N-30N between 35W-40W. A turn to the west-northwest with a
slight increase in forward speed are expected over the next couple
of days. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north are
forecast to occur by Sunday morning. See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or the website
hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands
extends its axis along 24W S of 19N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A 1011
mb low is embedded on the wave axis near 15N26W. Scattered
showers are noted from 05-17N between 21W-28W. Little if any
development of this disturbance is expected for the next couple
of days, but environmental conditions are expected to become
favorable for a tropical depression to form early next week while
the system moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Enhanced rainfall is possible across the Cabo Verde Islands
through today as the low moves away from the area.

An Atlantic tropical wave that was once associated with Gabrielle
is now along 43W S of 15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered
showers are seen from 07N-12N between 40W-46W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 62W S
of 19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is within 125 nm of the axis. Development, if any, of
this system will be slow to occur while it moves slowly NW.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 73W S of
19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are over Hispaniola.
Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 16N16W
to a low pressure near 15N26W to 07N38W. The ITCZ is from 09N46W
to 11N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the section above,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the coast
of Mauritania and Guinea-Bissau and from 04N-11N between 29W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is building across the NW Gulf with a 1018 mb high
centered over east Texas near 30N96W. A cold front in the eastern
Gulf is pushing southward across the NE Gulf coast. The front
extends from 29N83W to 29N89W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate
convection is over the W Gulf from 18N-24N between 94W-97W. Most
of the remainder of the Gulf is under fair weather as ridge builds
bringing in drier air into the NE Gulf limiting convection north
of 24N. ASCAT data indicate light winds across the basin.

A cold front over the northeast Gulf will shift southward and
dissipate through early Sat. Weak high pressure will persist
across the northwest Gulf through early next week, with gentle to
moderate winds expected.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the Yucatan
Channel and southwest Caribbean Sea drom 09N-13N between79W-83W
and from 16N-20N between 81W-87W. Scattered showers and tstorms
are also noted across Puerto Rico the Mona Passage and eastern
Dominican Republic. ASCAT data indicate light easterly trades E
of 69W and across the western Caribbean and moderate conditions
across the Central Caribbean Sea.

Weak ridging will prevail north of the area through early next
week. Fresh trade winds will pulse in the S central Caribbean
tonight. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected elsewhere
through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian, Gabrielle and
two tropical waves moving across the basin.

A cold front enters the forecast area in the western Atlantic
near the FL coast from 31N78W to 30N80W. No significant convection
is noted along the boundary. A surface trough extends south from
a low from 30N58W to 26N63W. Scattered showers are noted along the
trough north of 30N-33N between 57W-59W. A weak 1017 mb high is
over the W Atlantic near 26N66W. To the south near the Lesser
Antilles, a surface trough extends from 19N51W to 15N57W with a
surface 1012 mb low noted near over 16N56W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 17N-21N between 49W-54W.

Hurricane Dorian will accelerate northward away from the region
today. Large northerly swell from Dorian will dominate the waters
mainly north of 28N into Sun. A return to tranquil marine conditions
is expected next week.

$$
MMTorres
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