[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Dorian is centered near 33.8N 77.4W at 06/0300 UTC or
30 nm SE of Wilmington North Carolina moving NE at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. A
feeder band is over the east semicircle between 120 nm and 180 nm
from the center, with scattered moderate convection. On the
forecast track, the center of Dorian will move near or over the
coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move
to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night
and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later Saturday or
Saturday night. Slow weakening is expected during the next few
days. However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
as the center moves near the coasts of South and North Carolina.
Dorian is forecast to become a hurricane-force post-tropical
cyclone by Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia. Tornadoes
are possible through early Friday across eastern North Carolina
into southeast Virginia. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or the website
hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is centered near 24.3N 36.6W at 06/0300
UTC or 860 nm NW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. 25-30 kt of southerly
shear is over Gabrielle. Scattered moderate convection is well N
of the center from 27N-30N between 34W-38W. A turn to the
west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days. Little change in strength is
forecast through Friday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or the website
hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands
extends its axis along 22W S of 19N, moving W at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-16N between 23W-25W.
Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form while it moves westward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean through early next week. The chance of tropical
cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is low, however.

An Atlantic tropical wave that was once associated with Gabrielle
is now along 41W S of 15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 08N-10N between 41W-44W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 60W S
of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 60 nm
of the axis. Only slow development of this disturbance, if any,
is expected during the next couple of days while it moves slowly
northwestward. The chance of tropical cyclone formation during the
next 48 hours is low.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 71W S of
17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over
Hispaniola. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over N
Colombia from 07N-12N between 71W-77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W
to 11N26W to 10N47W. The ITCZ is from 10N47W to the coast of
Venezuela near 09N60W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 05N-11N between 27W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1018 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf near 28N93W. A
surface trough is over S Florida. Elsewhere, scattered moderate
convection is over the E Bay of Campeche from 17N-20N between 90W-
92W. Similar convection is inland over Mexico, W of Tampico. Most
of the remainder of the Gulf has fair weather. Strong subsidence
is over most of the Gulf.

High pressure will extend from NW to SE across the basin
producing gentle to moderate winds through the weekend. The high
will move to the NE Gulf early next week allowing for return flow
and a slight increase in winds and seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scattered showers are over the Yucatan Channel. Further S,
scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean, N
Nicaragua, W Honduras, and El Salvador.

Weak ridging will prevail N of the area through early next week.
Fresh to strong tradewinds will pulse in the S central Caribbean
tonight into early Fri, and then again early next week. Otherwise,
mainly moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian, Gabrielle and
two tropical waves moving across the basin.

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 30N78W to S Florida
near 24N82W. A weak 1018 mb high is over the W Atlantic near
28N67W. Another surface trough is over the central Atlantic from
31N60W to 26N61W. Scattered moderate convection is from 29N-33N
between 57W-60W. In the tropics, a 1014 mb low is E of the Leeward
Islands near 17N56W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
16N-21N between 50W-58W.

Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over
the central Atlantic near 26N45W producing wind shear over
Gabrielle. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 25N-31N
between 42W-48W.

Hurricane Dorian well N of the area near 33.8N 77.4W 958 mb at 11
PM EDT moving NE at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts
105 kt. Tropical storm force winds are N of 31N and Dorian will
continue to move farther away from the region through the end of
the week. Large northerly swell from Dorian will dominate the SW N
Atlc through the weekend. This swell continues to produce high
seas within the Gulfstream offshore of central and SE Florida.
Much more tranquil marine conditions are forecast by early next
week.

$$
Formosa
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