[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 51
National Weather Service Wakefield VA  AL052019
1126 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

This product covers CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE

**CORE OF HURRICANE DORIAN BRUSHING THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Camden, Chowan, Eastern Currituck, Pasquotank, Perquimans, and
      Western Currituck
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Bertie, Chesapeake, Gates, Hampton/Poquoson, Hertford, Isle
      of Wight, James City, Newport News, Norfolk/Portsmouth,
      Suffolk, Surry, and Virginia Beach
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Accomack, Charles
      City, Dorchester, Eastern Essex, Eastern King William, Eastern
      King and Queen, Gloucester, Greensville, Inland Worcester,
      Lancaster, Maryland Beaches, Mathews, Middlesex, New Kent,
      Northampton, Northampton, Northumberland, Prince George,
      Richmond, Somerset, Southampton, Sussex, Westmoreland,
      Wicomico, and York

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 340 miles south-southwest of Ocean City MD or about 220
      miles south-southwest of Norfolk VA
    - 33.8N 77.4W
    - Storm Intensity 100 mph
    - Movement Northeast or 45 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian remains a dangerous hurricane. Dorian is expected
to track near the North Carolina coast tonight, then race off to the
northeast Friday into Saturday. Significant impacts from Dorian are
expected across northeast North Carolina, eastern Virginia and the
lower Maryland eastern shore.

The strongest wind is expected late tonight into Friday across
Northeast North Carolina and Eastern Virginia. A few gusts close to
tropical storm force are already occurring across northeast North
Carolina and over the lower Chesapeake Bay. These winds will continue
to increase tonight into Friday. Hurricane force wind is possible,
especially over coastal communities of Northeast North Carolina. In
addition, a few hurricane force gusts are possible along Virginia
Atlantic Coast south of Cape Charles. This strong wind will knock down
trees and weakened structures, and cause power outages.

Storm surge impacts are expected with Hurricane Dorian. Based on the
current forecast, inundation of 3 feet above ground is expected from
Hampton Roads into coastal Northeast North Carolina. Inundation of
1 to 3 feet is possible north of Hampton Roads and along the eastern
shore. Large breaking waves will likely result in moderate to
significant beach erosion and ocean overwash along the coasts of
Southeast Virginia and Northeast North Carolina. Vulnerable areas
could experience erosion at multiple high tide cycles.

Very dangerous marine conditions are expected with seas 12 to 20 feet
and potentially higher. A high threat of rip currents will continue
for all area beaches and it is advised to stay out of the water.

Hurricane Dorian will produce heavy rainfall across far southeast
Virginia and northeast North Carolina, with moderate to significant
impacts possible. Rainfall of 4 to 10 inches can be expected over
southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina, with locally higher
amounts possible along the coast of northeast North Carolina up into
the eastern Tidewater area. Rainfall amounts over the Virginia Eastern
Shore are forecast to range from 3 to 6 inches. These heavy rainfall
amounts in a relative short period of time has the potential to
produce flash flooding tonight through Friday afternoon. Some minor to
moderate river flooding is possible Friday and into the weekend,
especially for smaller rivers and creeks.

A few tornadoes are also possible overnight across southeast Virginia
and northeast North Carolina. A Tornado Watch is in effect for far
southeast Virginia and much of northeast North Carolina until 700 AM
EDT Friday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across southeastern Virginia into northeast North
Carolina.

Potential impacts include:

    - Evacuations and rescues likely due to flooding from heavy
      rainfall
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      overwhelmed.
    - Flood waters enter structures within multiple communities, with
      some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Some
      escape routes inundated by flood waters. Streets, parking lots
      and underpasses could be submerged, with driving conditions
      quickly becoming dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures
      are expected with some becoming weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts across eastern Virginia and the lower Maryland
Eastern Shore.

Elsewhere across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE, little to no impact
is anticipated.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across southeastern Virginia into northeast North Carolina.

Potential impacts in this area include:

    - Considerable damage to sturdy buildings, including roof,
      window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes severely
      damaged, with some destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne
      projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted and roadway signs blown
      over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris including bridges,
      causeways, and access routes.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across eastern Virginia and the lower Maryland
Eastern Shore.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across Hampton Roads and coastal northeast North Carolina.

Potential impacts in this area include:

    - Severe storm surge flooding will likely cause inundation of
      numerous roads and buildings, resulting in a threat to life and
      property. Flooding will likely extend inland from the
      waterfront and shoreline flooding homes, businesses and
      isolating some neighborhoods. Large breaking waves will result
      in additional damage near the shoreline.
    - Numerous roads flooded or washed out.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching some dunes.
    - Severe damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers is
      expected. Small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected marinas and docks.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across along the central and lower Chesapeake Bay and Tidal
Tributaries, as well as the Atlantic Coast north of Chincoteague.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across Northeast North Carolina.

Potential impacts include:
    - Some tornadoes are expected, some of which could be intense. As
      a result, execution of emergency plans could be hindered in
      affected areas.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage, with a few areas
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles
      tumbled, and small boats tossed about.

Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across Southeastern Virginia.

Elsewhere across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:

Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time. Follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time. Follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see
www.readyvirginia.gov, readync.org or mema.maryland.gov
- For the latest weather and storm information go to
weather.gov/wakefield

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Wakefield VA by around 3 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

05
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