[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 51
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC  AL052019
1111 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

This product covers Eastern North Carolina

**CORE OF HURRICANE DORIAN BRUSHING THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Duplin, Greene,
      Lenoir, Martin, and Pitt
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Northern Craven
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Beaufort, Coastal Onslow, East Carteret, Hatteras Island,
      Inland Onslow, Jones, Mainland Dare, Mainland Hyde, Northern
      Outer Banks, Ocracoke Island, Pamlico, Southern Craven,
      Tyrrell, Washington, and West Carteret

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 150 miles southwest of Buxton NC or about 70 miles
      south-southwest of Morehead City NC
    - 33.8N 77.4W
    - Storm Intensity 100 mph
    - Movement Northeast or 45 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian remains a dangerous hurricane, and will impact
eastern North Carolina through Friday night. The center of Dorian may
make landfall along the North Carolina coast, but regardless of exact
track, significant impacts are expected across all of eastern North
Carolina.

Life threatening storm surge impacts are expected with Hurricane
Dorian. Based on the current forecast, inundation of 4 to 7 feet above
ground is expected across much of the area. Very rapid water level
rises are anticipated on the soundside Outer Banks, and potentially
Downeast Carteret County and eastern Craven County, as the center of
the storm passes, bringing life-threatening storm surge. Significant
storm surge is also expected across other portions of the inland
sounds and rivers, including the Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound,
Alligator River, Neuse River, Pamlico River, and smaller tidal rivers.

Very high surf and large breaking waves will result in moderate to
significant beach erosion and ocean overwash along the North Carolina
coast through Friday night. Overwash and sound side flooding will
likely cause issues on Highway 12 on the Outer Banks beginning
tonight, and could continue into Saturday. Vulnerable areas could
experience erosion or overwash for multiple high tide cycles.

Hurricane Dorian will produce very heavy rainfall across Eastern North
Carolina, with widespread flash flooding possible. The rainfall
forecast calls for an average of 6 to 12 inches of rainfall, with
localized higher amounts up to 15 inches where rainbands persist.
These heavy rainfall amounts in a relative short period of time will
likely produce flash flooding across eastern North Carolina through
Friday evening. Some minor to moderate river flooding will also be
possible Friday and into the weekend, especially for smaller rivers
and creeks east of the coastal plain. This too is track dependent and
could shift.

Tropical storm force winds will continue, with the strongest winds
expected tonight through Friday afternoon. Hurricane force winds are
possible for much of the area, but are most likely along the coast.
Strong winds will have the ability to bring down trees, damage
structures, and cause widespread power outages.

Rainbands with embedded storms capable of producing several tornadoes
will move across the area through Friday. The threat for scattered
tornadoes may continue through Friday morning.

Very dangerous marine conditions are expected with seas 15 to 25 feet
and higher. A high threat of rip currents will continue for all area
beaches and it is advised to stay out of the water.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding across
coastal Eastern North Carolina. Remain well away from life-threatening
surge having possible extensive impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
Eastern North Carolina. Remain well guarded against life-threatening
flood waters having additional extensive impacts. If
realized, these impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
coastal Eastern North Carolina. Remain well sheltered from
life-threatening wind having additional extensive impacts. If realized,
these impacts include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Potential impacts from the main wind event are also now unfolding
across the inner coastal plain of Eastern North Carolina. Remain well
sheltered from dangerous wind having additional significant impacts.

* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across Eastern North
Carolina. Remain well braced against a dangerous tornado event having
additional significant impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the all clear
to return.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for
updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a
battery-powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.

During the peak of the storm be ready to move quickly. Keep your
shoes on and rain gear handy. Boots and athletic shoes offer the best
foot protection if you become unexpectedly exposed to the weather.

Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and
check-ins.

Do not venture outside while in the eye of a hurricane as any
improvement in weather will only be temporary. Once the eye passes,
conditions will become life threatening as winds immediately return
to dangerous speeds, so remain safely sheltered from the storm.

If you are prone to flooding or in an area under a storm surge watch
or warning, be prepared for the possibility of a quick and dramatic
rise in water levels.

If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the
safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Newport/Morehead City NC around 230 AM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
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