[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 50
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC  AL052019
515 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

This product covers Eastern North Carolina

**LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE DORIAN BEGIN TODAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Duplin, Greene,
      Lenoir, Martin, and Pitt
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Northern Craven
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Beaufort, Coastal Onslow, East Carteret, Hatteras Island,
      Inland Onslow, Jones, Mainland Dare, Mainland Hyde, Northern
      Outer Banks, Ocracoke Island, Pamlico, Southern Craven,
      Tyrrell, Washington, and West Carteret

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 230 miles southwest of Buxton NC or about 150 miles
      southwest of Morehead City NC
    - 33.1N 78.5W
    - Storm Intensity 105 mph
    - Movement Northeast or 35 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian remains a dangerous hurricane, and will impact
eastern North Carolina through Friday night. There is an increase
confidence with the track of the hurricane, and significant impacts
are expected across all of eastern North Carolina.

Life threatening storm surge impacts are expected with Hurricane
Dorian. Based on the current forecast, inundation of 4 to 7 feet above
ground is possible across much of the area. The greatest surge will
initially occur along the beaches, mainly south of Cape Hatteras. Very
rapid water level rise is then anticipated on the soundside Outer
Banks, and potentially Downeast Carteret County and eastern Craven
County, as the center of the storm passes, bringing life-threatening
storm surge. Significant storm surge is also possible across other
portions of the inland sounds and rivers, including the Pamlico Sound,
Albemarle Sound, Alligator River, Neuse River, Pamlico River, and
smaller tidal rivers - though the exact surge values for these areas
will be highly track-dependent, with small changes in the track
resulting in significant changes in surge values.

Very high surf and large breaking waves will likely result in moderate
to significant beach erosion and ocean overwash along the North
Carolina coast through Friday night. Overwash and sound side flooding
will likely cause issues on Highway 12 on the Outer Banks beginning
tonight. Vulnerable areas could experience erosion or overwash for
multiple high tide cycles.

Hurricane Dorian will produce very heavy rainfall across Eastern North
Carolina, with widespread flash flooding possible. The rainfall
forecast calls for an average of 6 to 12 inches of rainfall, with
localized higher amounts up to 15 inches where rainbands persist.
These heavy rainfall amounts in a relative short period of time will
likely produce flash flooding across eastern North Carolina through
Friday evening. Some minor to moderate river flooding will also be
possible Friday and into the weekend, especially for smaller rivers
and creeks east of the coastal plain. This too is track dependent and
could shift.

Tropical storm force winds are developing, with the strongest winds
expected this evening through Friday afternoon. Hurricane force winds
are possible for much of the area, but are most likely along the
coast. Strong winds will have the ability to bring down trees, damage
structures, and cause widespread power outages.

Rainbands with embedded storms capable of producing several tornadoes
will move across the area through tonight. The threat for scattered
tornadoes may continue through the tonight.

Very dangerous marine conditions are expected with seas 15 to 25 feet
and higher. A high threat of rip currents will continue for all area
beaches and it is advised to stay out of the water.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding across
coastal areas of eastern North Carolina. Remain well away from life-threatening
surge having possible extensive impacts. If
realized, these impacts include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.


Elsewhere across Eastern North Carolina, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
Eastern North Carolina. Remain well guarded against life-threatening
flood waters having possible extensive impacts. If
realized, these impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
coastal eastern North Carolina. Remain well sheltered from
life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Potential impacts from the main wind event are also now unfolding
across  inner coastal plain of eastern North Carolina. Remain well sheltered from
dangerous wind having possible significant impacts.

* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across Eastern
North Carolina. Remain well braced against a dangerous tornado event
having additional significant impacts. If realized,
these impacts include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the all
clear to return.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for
updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a
battery-powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.

During the peak of the storm be ready to move quickly. Keep your
shoes on and rain gear handy. Boots and athletic shoes offer the best
foot protection if you become unexpectedly exposed to the weather.

Do not venture outside while in the eye of a hurricane as any
improvement in weather will only be temporary. Once the eye passes,
conditions will become life threatening as winds immediately return
to dangerous speeds, so remain safely sheltered from the storm.

If you are prone to flooding or in an area under a storm surge watch
or warning, be prepared for the possibility of a quick and dramatic
rise in water levels.

If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the
safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Newport/Morehead City NC around 9 PM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
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