[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
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emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Thu Sep 5 10:54:57 CDT 2019
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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 49
National Weather Service Wakefield VA AL052019
1154 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019
This product covers CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
**HURRICANE DORIAN TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Charles City, Dorchester, Eastern Essex, Eastern
King William, Eastern King and Queen, Greensville, Inland
Worcester, Maryland Beaches, New Kent, Prince George, Richmond,
Somerset, Sussex, Westmoreland, and Wicomico
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Camden, Chowan, Eastern Currituck, Pasquotank, Perquimans, and
Western Currituck
- A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for Bertie, Chesapeake, Hampton/Poquoson, Hertford, Isle of
Wight, James City, Newport News, Norfolk/Portsmouth, Suffolk,
Surry, and Virginia Beach
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Accomack, Charles
City, Dorchester, Eastern Essex, Eastern King William, Eastern
King and Queen, Gates, Gloucester, Greensville, Inland
Worcester, Lancaster, Maryland Beaches, Mathews, Middlesex, New
Kent, Northampton, Northampton, Northumberland, Prince George,
Richmond, Somerset, Southampton, Sussex, Westmoreland,
Wicomico, and York
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 460 miles south-southwest of Ocean City MD or about 340
miles south-southwest of Norfolk VA
- 32.5N 79.1W
- Storm Intensity 110 mph
- Movement North-northeast or 20 degrees at 8 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Hurricane Dorian remains a dangerous hurricane and is expected to
move across or just offshore of the coastal Carolinas tonight into
Friday night. Significant impacts are expected across northeast North
Carolina, eastern Virginia and the lower Maryland eastern shore.
The strongest wind is expected late Thursday night into Friday across
Northeast North Carolina and Eastern Virginia. Tropical Storm force
wind could develop as early as this afternoon over Northeast North
Carolina, with the wind peaking Friday morning into Friday afternoon.
Hurricane force wind is possible, especially over coastal communities
of Northeast North Carolina. In addition, a few hurricane force gusts
are possible along Virginia Atlantic Coast south of Cape Charles. This
strong wind will likely knock down trees and weakened structures, and
cause power outages.
Storm surge impacts are expected with Hurricane Dorian. Based on the
current forecast, inundation of 3 feet above ground is possible from
Hampton Roads into coastal Northeast North Carolina. Even a small
shift in the track could change what locations may see the most
significant inundation. Large breaking waves will likely result in
moderate to significant beach erosion and ocean overwash along the
coasts of Southeast Virginia and Northeast North Carolina. Vulnerable
areas could experience erosion at multiple high tide cycles.
Very dangerous marine conditions are expected with seas 12 to 20 feet
and potentially higher. A high threat of rip currents will continue
for all area beaches and it is advised to stay out of the water.
Hurricane Dorian will produce heavy rainfall across far southeast
Virginia and northeast North Carolina, with moderate impacts possible.
The current forecast shows the potential for some very heavy rainfall
amounts, ranging from 4 to 10 inches over southeast Virginia and
northeast North Carolina, with locally higher amounts possible along
the coast of northeast North Carolina up into the eastern Tidewater
area. Rainfall amounts over the Virginia Eastern Shore are forecast to
range from 3 to 6 inches. These heavy rainfall amounts in a relative
short period of time has the potential to produce flash flooding late
Thursday night through Friday afternoon. Small changes in the forecast
could shift the heaviest axis of rainfall further inland or just off
the coast, so continue to monitor the latest updates. Some minor to
moderate river flooding is possible Friday and into the weekend,
especially for smaller rivers and creeks.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across southeastern Virginia into northeast North Carolina.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Considerable damage to sturdy buildings, including roof,
window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes severely
damaged, with some destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne
projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted and roadway signs blown
over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris including bridges,
causeways, and access routes.
- Widespread power and communications outages.
Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across eastern Virginia and the lower Maryland
Eastern Shore.
* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across Hampton Roads and coastal northeast North Carolina.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Severe storm surge flooding will likely cause inundation of
numerous roads and buildings, resulting in a threat to life and
property. Flooding will likely extend inland from the
waterfront and shoreline flooding homes, businesses and
isolating some neighborhoods. Large breaking waves will result
in additional damage near the shoreline.
- Numerous roads flooded or washed out.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching some dunes.
- Severe damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers is
expected. Small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected marinas and docks.
Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across along the central and lower Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Tributaries,
as well as the Atlantic Coast north of Chincoteague.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across southeastern Virginia into northeast North Carolina.
Potential impacts include:
- Evacuations and rescues likely due to flooding from heavy
rainfall
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
overwhelmed.
- Flood waters enter structures within multiple communities, with
some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Some
escape routes inundated by flood waters. Streets, parking lots
and underpasses could be submerged, with driving conditions
quickly becoming dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures
are expected with some becoming weakened or washed out.
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts across eastern Virginia and the lower Maryland
Eastern Shore.
Elsewhere across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE, little to no impact
is anticipated.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across Northeast North Carolina. Potential impacts
include:
- Some tornadoes are expected, some of which could be intense. As
a result, execution of emergency plans could be hindered in
affected areas.
- Several places may experience tornado damage, with a few areas
of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles
tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across Southeast Virginia.
Elsewhere across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE, little to no impact
is anticipated.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.
For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.
If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time. Follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.
Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.
For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.
If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time. Follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.
Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see
www.readyvirginia.gov, readync.org or mema.maryland.gov
- For the latest weather and storm information go to
weather.gov/wakefield
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Wakefield VA around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
$$
MRD
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