[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
641 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Dorian is centered near 31.7N 79.5W at 05/0900 UTC or
70 nm SSE of Charleston South Carolina moving N at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 957 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 29N-36N between 77W-81W. A feeder band
is east of the center from 29N-36W between 75W-76W. On the forecast
track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the
coast of South Carolina through the day, and then move near or
over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center
should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England
Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later
on Saturday. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
this morning, followed by slow weakening through Saturday.
However, Dorian is expected to remain a hurricane for the next few
days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. The URL for more
information is: hurricanes.gov.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle centered near 21.9N 35.0W at 05/0900
UTC or 720 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 22N-27N between 31W-37W. Gabrielle's motion is
expected to continue for the next few days with an increase in
forward speed. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. The URL for more
information is:hurricanes.gov.

A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 35N62W, to the NE of
Bermuda. Scattered moderate convection is from 28N-33N between
58W-62W. Increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds, produced by
Hurricane Dorian, are expected to inhibit further development
during the next several days as the system moves northeastward
into the central north Atlantic. The chance of a tropical cyclone
developing during the next 48 hours remains medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 17W, from 20N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
within 120 nm of the axis. Environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for some slow development late this week. This system
has the potential to become a tropical depression early next week
while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 54W, from 21N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 16N-19N between 50W-56W. Scattered
showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean low amplitude tropical wave extends its axis
along 67W, south of 13N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is inland over Venezuela from 01N-09N
between 64W-68W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 86W from
19N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are over the
NW Caribbean from 16N-21N between 81W-85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 16N16W to 07N24W to 11N40W to
11N46W. The ITCZ is from 11N46W to 15N52W. The ITCZ resumes near
15N56W to 12N64W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N
between 36W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers are over the Straits of Florida and W Cuba. The
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has mostly fair weather. Upper
level subsidence covers most of the Gulf.

Weak high pressure will prevail across the basin through the
weekend, producing gentle to moderate winds, that will strengthen
some early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along
09N between 74W-84W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
south of 11N between 75W-83W.

A tropical wave along 86W will shift W of the basin tonight.
Another tropical wave near 67W over the SE Caribbean will weaken
and dissipate by tonight. A third tropical wave will enter the
eastern Caribbean Saturday. Fresh to strong tradewinds will pulse
in the S central Caribbean tonight. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to
fresh tradewinds are expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian, Gabrielle,
a Special Feature low, and two tropical waves, moving across the
basin.

Aside from the features described above, surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin.

Hurricane Dorian will continue to move farther away from the area
to 32.7N 78.9W this afternoon, with conditions over the forecast
waters gradually improving into the weekend. The large northerly
swell from Dorian will dominate the SW N Atlc through the weekend.
Much more tranquil marine conditions are forecast by early next
week.

$$
Formosa
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