[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
159 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 04/1800 UTC, is near 30.2N
79.8W. This position is about 100 nm/185 km to the ENE of
Jacksonville in Florida, and about 155 nm/290 km to the S of
Charleston in South Carolina. Dorian is moving NNW, or 340
degrees, 8 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 964
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 90 kt with gusts to 110
knots. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are wrapped around
the eye, 1.5 times. Everything is about 90 nm from the center.
Other scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
elsewhere within 270 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and
within 180 nm of the center in the S semicircle. The PUBLIC
ADVISORIES for DORIAN are available via the WMO header WTNT35
KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES
for DORIAN are available via the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC, and via
the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. The URL for more information is:
hurricanes.gov.

The center of Tropical Storm Fernand, at 04/1800 UTC, is near
24.3N 97.9W. This position is about 30 nm/55 km to the N of La
Pesca in Mexico. Fernand is moving WNW, or 290 degrees, 7 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots.
Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are inland, in Mexico,
within 240 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere, in Mexico and in
Texas, from 22N to 29N between the coasts of Texas and Mexico and
103W inland. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Gulf of
Mexico, from 22N northward from 90W westward. The PUBLIC
ADVISORIES for FERNAND are available via the WMO header WTNT32
KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES
for FERNAND are available via the WMO header WTNT22 KNHC, and via
the AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

The center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, at 04/1500 UTC, is near
20.5N 33.8W. Gabrielle is moving NW, or 320 degrees, 8 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 240
nm of the center in the NW semicircle. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for
GABRIELLE are available via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via
the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for GABRIELLE
are available via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT3.

A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 33N63W, just to the NE of
Bermuda. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 28N to 35N between 56W and 64W. Some development of this
feature is possible. It is possible that a tropical depression may
form during the next couple of days, as the low pressure center
moves northeastward, away from Bermuda. Upper level winds are
forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation,
later. The chance of a tropical cyclone developing during the
next 48 hours is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W, from 21N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 14N to 21N between 47W and 52W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W, from 13N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers cover the land areas and the waters from 08N to
12N between 59W and 64W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W, from 19N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Monsoon trough-related
rainshowers are from 13N southward, from 13N in Nicaragua
southward, between 76W in the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia and 86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 07N19W and 07N26W. The monsoon trough is broken up at
this point. Another part of the monsoon trough is along 13N/14N
between 35W and 45W. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are
in Africa and the coastal waters from 11N to 16N between 13W and
18W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 04N to 10N between 18W and 27W. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 06N to 14N between 32W and 59W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Fernand is in the western Gulf of Mexico.

Middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf
of Mexico. A NW-to-SE oriented ridge extends from the middle Texas
coast toward the Straits of Florida.

Tropical Storm Fernand near 24.2N 97.3W, 1002 mb at 1500 UTC,
moving WNW 7 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots
with gusts to 50 knots. The highest wind speeds and the majority
of significant weather will remain W and SW of the center.
Fernand will continue westward, and move inland, near 24.7N 98.9W
by this evening, as it weakens to a tropical depression, and
gradually dissipates inland in Mexico, by Thursday evening. Weak
high pressure then will prevail across the basin during the
weekend, in order to produce light to moderate winds and mild
seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea, from 700 mb to 250
mb, from 70W westward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea between 67W and 74W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 13N northward, elsewhere
from 74W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N, from 74W in Colombia, beyond 86W
in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are within 120 nm to the south of Panama from 82W
eastward. Numerous strong rainshowers are in SE Nicaragua.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the
Caribbean Sea from 12N southward from 76W westward.

Hurricane Dorian, off the NE Florida coast, will continue to
disrupt the tradewind flow across the NW Caribbean Sea, through
early Friday. A tropical wave, that is near 81W, will continue
through the western Caribbean Sea, exiting the basin into Central
America on Friday. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse to
strong each night in the S central Caribbean Sea through early
Friday. Moderate to fresh winds are expected elsewhere across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Early morning altimeter data indicated that NW swell from DORIAN,
that is propagating southward, between Florida and the Bahamas,
was hitting the Gulf Stream, and amplifying waves to 10 to 20
feet.

Hurricane Dorian is moving northward, away from the coastal waters
of NE Florida. Tropical Storm Gabrielle and its accompanying
precipitation are from 600 nm to 800 nm to the NW of the Cabo
Verde Islands. A 1015 mb low pressure center is just to the NE of
Bermuda, with nearby precipitation.

Hurricane Dorian near 29.8N 79.7W 964 mb, at 1500 UTC, moving NNW
8 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 90 kt with gusts
110 knots. Dorian will continue northward, toward the South
Carolina coast through early Thursday morning. Dorian will reach
30.8N 80.0W this evening; then veer NE and along or just offshore
of the Carolina coasts from Thursday through Friday. Large
northerly swell from Dorian will dominate the SW North Atlantic
Ocean through Saturday.

$$
MT
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