[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
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Wed Sep 4 10:30:08 CDT 2019
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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 45
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC AL052019
1129 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019
This product covers Eastern North Carolina
**HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Duplin, Greene, Lenoir, Martin, and Pitt
- The Hurricane Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning
for Northern Craven
- The Hurricane Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning
and the Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge
Warning for Beaufort, Coastal Onslow, East Carteret, Hatteras
Island, Inland Onslow, Jones, Mainland Dare, Mainland Hyde,
Northern Outer Banks, Ocracoke Island, Pamlico, Southern
Craven, Tyrrell, Washington, and West Carteret
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Duplin, Greene,
Lenoir, Martin, and Pitt
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Northern Craven
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Beaufort, Coastal Onslow, East Carteret, Hatteras Island,
Inland Onslow, Jones, Mainland Dare, Mainland Hyde, Northern
Outer Banks, Ocracoke Island, Pamlico, Southern Craven,
Tyrrell, Washington, and West Carteret
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 450 miles southwest of Buxton NC or about 380 miles
south-southwest of Morehead City NC
- 29.8N 79.7W
- Storm Intensity 105 mph
- Movement North-northwest or 335 degrees at 9 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Hurricane Dorian remains a dangerous hurricane and is expected to
move across or just offshore of the area Thursday night into Friday
night. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact forecast
track, but significant impacts are expected across Eastern North
Carolina given that Dorian is a very large system which will bring
impacts felt well away from the center.
Potentially life threatening storm surge impacts are expected with
Hurricane Dorian. Based on the current forecast, inundation of 4 to
7 feet above ground is possible oceanside from Surf City to Cape
Lookout. Inundation of 3 to 6 feet above ground level is expected
oceanside from Cape Lookout north to Duck. For the inland sounds and
rivers including the Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Alligator River,
Neuse River, Pamlico River, and smaller tidal rivers, 3 to 6 feet
above ground level of inundation is expected. The exact forecast for
most locations remains highly track-dependent, with small changes in
the track resulting in significant changes in surge values.
Very high surf and large breaking waves will likely result in moderate
to significant beach erosion and ocean overwash along the North
Carolina coast Thursday and Friday. Overwash and sound side flooding
will likely cause issues on Highway 12 on the Outer Banks Thursday
night through Friday night. Vulnerable areas could experience erosion
or overwash for multiple high tide cycles.
Hurricane Dorian will produce very heavy rainfall across Eastern North
Carolina, with widespread flash flooding possible. The rainfall
forcast calls for an average of 6 to 10 inches of rainfall is expected
across the area, with localized higher amounts over a foot where
rainbands persist. These heavy rainfall amounts in a relative short
period of time will likely produce flash flooding across eastern North
Carolina Thursday through Friday evening. Some minor to moderate river
flooding will also be possible Friday and into the weekend, especially
for smaller rivers and creeks east of the coastal plain. This too is
track dependent and could shift.
The strongest winds are expected late Thursday night into Friday
evening. Tropical storm force winds could develop as early as
Thursday, with winds peaking late Thursday night into Friday evening.
Hurricane force winds are for much of the area, but are most likely
along the coast. Strong winds will have the ability to knock down
trees, damage weak structures, and cause widespread power outages.
Isolated tornadoes are possible late Wednesday through Friday morning.
Very dangerous marine conditions are expected with seas 15 to 25 feet
and higher. A high threat of rip currents will continue for all area
beaches and it is advised to stay out of the water.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts across coastal eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts
include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities. Driving conditions become dangerous. Flood waters may
cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Many road and bridge
closures with some weakened or washed out.
* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across coastal eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
access routes impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.
Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across the inner coastal plain of eastern North Carolina.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.
For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.
If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit.
Gas up your vehicle ahead of time.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.
Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.
Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.
If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Newport/Morehead City NC around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.
$$
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