[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205-041745-

Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 44
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC  AL052019
539 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

This product covers Eastern North Carolina

**HURRICANE DORIAN EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Duplin, Greene, Lenoir,
      Martin, and Pitt
    - A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Northern Craven
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Beaufort, Coastal Onslow, East Carteret, Hatteras Island,
      Inland Onslow, Jones, Mainland Dare, Mainland Hyde, Northern
      Outer Banks, Ocracoke Island, Pamlico, Southern Craven,
      Tyrrell, Washington, and West Carteret

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 480 miles south-southwest of Buxton NC or about 410 miles
      south-southwest of Morehead City NC
    - 29.2N 79.5W
    - Storm Intensity 105 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 330 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian remains a dangerous hurricane and is expected to
move across or just offshore of the area Thursday night into Friday
night. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact forecast
track, but significant impacts are expected across Eastern North
Carolina given that Dorian is a very large system which will bring
impacts felt well away from the center.

Potentially life threatening storm surge impacts are expected with
Hurricane Dorian. Based on the current forecast, inundation of 4 to
7 feet above ground is possible oceanside from Surf City to Cape
Lookout. Inundation of 3 to 5 feet above ground level is expected
oceanside from Cape Lookout north to Duck. For the inland sounds and
rivers including the Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Alligator River,
Neuse River, Pamlico River, and smaller tidal rivers, 3 to 5 feet
above ground level of inundation is expected. The exact forecast for
most locations remains highly track-dependent, with small changes in
the track resulting in significant changes in surge values.

Very high surf and large breaking waves will likely result in moderate
to significant beach erosion and ocean overwash along the North
Carolina coast Thursday and Friday. Overwash and sound side flooding
will likely cause issues on Highway 12 on the Outer Banks Thursday
night through Friday night. Vulnerable areas could experience erosion
or overwash for multiple high tide cycles.

Hurricane Dorian will produce very heavy rainfall across Eastern North
Carolina, with widespread flash flooding possible. 5 to 10 inches of
rainfall is expected across the area, with localized higher amounts
most likely along and east of US Hwy 17. These heavy rainfall amounts
in a relative short period of time will likely produce flash flooding
across eastern North Carolina Thursday through Friday evening. Some
minor to moderate river flooding will also be possible Friday and into
the weekend, especially for smaller rivers and creeks east of the
coastal plain. This too is track dependent and could shift.

The strongest winds are expected late Thursday night into Friday
evening. Tropical storm force winds could develop as early as
Thursday, with winds peaking late Thursday night into Friday evening.
Hurricane force winds are for much of the area, but are most likely
along the coast. Strong winds will have the ability to knock down
trees, damage weak structures, and cause widespread power outages.

Isolated tornadoes are possible late Wednesday through Friday morning.

Very dangerous marine conditions are expected with seas 15 to 25 feet
and higher. A high threat of rip currents will continue for all area
beaches and it is advised to stay out of the water.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible extensive impacts
across coastal eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding across portions of
  eastern North Carolina, especially near the coast where the
  highest rainfall amounts are currently forecast. Potential impacts
  include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
     communities. Driving conditions become dangerous. Flood waters may
     cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
     moving water with underpasses submerged.  Many road and bridge
     closures with some weakened or washed out.

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across coastal eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across the inner coastal plain of eastern North Carolina.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to
move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate,
help keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Newport/Morehead City NC around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
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