[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 43
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC  AL052019
1128 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

This product covers Eastern North Carolina

**DORIAN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND GROWING IN SIZE TARGETING NORTH
CAROLINA LATER THIS WEEK**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Duplin, Greene, Lenoir,
      Martin, and Pitt
    - A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Northern Craven
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Beaufort, Coastal Onslow, East Carteret, Hatteras Island,
      Inland Onslow, Jones, Mainland Dare, Mainland Hyde, Northern
      Outer Banks, Ocracoke Island, Pamlico, Southern Craven,
      Tyrrell, Washington, and West Carteret

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 510 miles south-southwest of Buxton NC or about 460 miles
      south-southwest of Morehead City NC
    - 28.4N 79.0W
    - Storm Intensity 110 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 6 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian remains a dangerous hurricane and is expected to
move up the Southeast US coast Wednesday, approaching the North
Carolina coast Thursday and Friday. There is still some uncertainty
regarding the exact forecast track, but significant impacts are
expected across Eastern North Carolina. Regardless, this is a very
large system and impacts will be felt well away from the center.

Potentially life threatening storm surge impacts are expected with
Hurricane Dorian. Based on the current forecast, inundation of 4 to
7 feet above ground will be possible oceanside from Surf City to Cape
Lookout. Inundation of 3 to 5 feet (above ground level) is expected
oceanside from Cape Lookout north to Duck. For the inland sounds and
rivers including the Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Alligator River,
Neuse River, Pamlico River, and smaller tidal rivers, 3 to 5 feet
(above ground level) of inundation is expected. A small shift in the
track could change what locations may see the most significant
inundation.

Very high surf and large breaking waves will likely result in moderate
to significant beach erosion and ocean overwash along the North
Carolina coast Thursday and Friday. Overwash and sound side flooding
will likely cause issues on Highway 12 on the Outer Banks Thursday and
Friday. Vulnerable areas could experience erosion at multiple high
tide cycles.

Hurricane Dorian will produce very heavy rainfall across Eastern North
Carolina, with moderate to significant impacts possible. Current
forecasts show rainfall amounts ranging from around 5 inches over the
coastal plain, to 15 inches or more along the coast. These heavy
rainfall amounts in a relative short period of time will likely
produce flash flooding across Eastern North Carolina Thursday through
Friday afternoon. That being said, small changes in the forecast could
shift the heaviest axis of rainfall further inland or just off the
coast, so continue to monitor the latest updates. Some minor to
moderate river flooding will also be possible Friday and into the
weekend, especially for smaller rivers and creeks east of the coastal
plain. This too is track dependent and could shift.

The strongest winds are expected Thursday night into Friday morning.
Tropical storm force winds could develop as early as Wednesday night,
with winds peaking Thursday evening into early Friday morning.
Hurricane force winds will be possible, especially for areas along the
coast. These strong winds will have the ability to knock down trees,
weak structures, and cause widespread power outages.

Isolated tornadoes will be possible late Wednesday through Thursday
night.

Very dangerous marine conditions are expected with seas 15 to 25 feet
and higher. A high threat of rip currents will continue for all area
beaches and it is advised to stay out of the water.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible extensive impacts
across coastal eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

Elsewhere across Eastern North Carolina, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across eastern North Carolina. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt some evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and
      bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across coastal areas of eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across further inland areas of eastern North Carolina.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Newport/Morehead City NC around 5 AM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
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