[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 42
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL052019
554 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

This product covers EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

**Hurricane Dorian Making its Closest Approach to East Central Florida
Tonight and Early Wednesday**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Hurricane Warning has been cancelled and a Tropical Storm
      Warning has been issued for Indian River, Martin, and St. Lucie
    - The Tropical Storm Warning has been cancelled for Okeechobee
      and Osceola

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Volusia, Northern Brevard, and Southern Brevard
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Indian River, Martin, and St. Lucie
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Volusia,
      Northern Lake, Orange, Seminole, and Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 130 miles east-southeast of Cape Canaveral FL or about
      100 miles east of Vero Beach FL
    - 27.7N 78.7W
    - Storm Intensity 110 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 325 degrees at 6 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian is now moving northwest at 6 mph late this
afternoon north of Grand Bahama Island, or about 100 miles east of
Vero Beach. Dorian is expected to move northwest tonight and then
turn north-northwest and move parallel to the east coast of central
Florida at a somewhat faster forward speed on Wednesday.

Weather conditions will continue to deteriorate near the coast for
Brevard and Volusia Counties tonight into early Wednesday.

As Dorian makes its closest approach to the area tonight, coastal
impacts being felt along the Treasure Coast and Brevard County will
extend north to the Volusia coast and will worsen. Residents can
expect increasing winds and gusty squalls as well as continued
worsening of ongoing dangerous sea and surf conditions.

There will be considerable impacts and some damage to coastal areas
with effects starting to be felt over inland areas as well. The threat
for damaging gusty winds, especially in increasing squalls is high. The
threat for life-threatening storm surge is moderate. Severe beach
erosion and topping or breaching of the dunes from water runup during
high tide, coupled with storm surge will increase around the high tide
at midnight tonight and north of the Cape around 1 pm on Wednesday.

The latest forecast for Dorian keeps the eye of Dorian about 50 to
60 miles offshore from east central Florida at its closest approach.
Any deviation west of the forecast track would bring stronger winds,
higher seas and surf, and heavier rain to the Florida east coast generally
north of Sebastian Inlet tonight into early Wednesday.

Tropical storm force winds between 30 and 40 mph, with gusts up to 55
mph will be possible along the Treasure Coast tonight with improving
conditions late tonight. The strongest winds are expected along the Brevard
and Volusia coastline overnight into early Wednesday. Sustained winds may
increase to 35 to 45 mph for a time with hurricane possible near the
immediate coast and beaches with stronger rain squalls that move onshore.
Some squalls will make it into the interior overnight as well with gusts
to 50 mph possible from Osceola county to metro Orlando, inland Volusia
and northeast Volusia County.

Persons in Brevard and Volusia, people should remain indoors as stronger
winds develop through tonight and early Wednesday.

The threat for life-threatening storm surge is moderate, and severe
erosion of the beaches and dune lines is a near certainty! The
combination of surge and high astronomical tides will cause severe
runup of waves and water, resulting in inundation of many coastal
locations. Surge may reach 3 to 5 feet above ground north of Cape
Canaveral and 2 to 4 feet from Cape Canaveral to Jupiter Inlet. The
surge of north winds as the hurricane moves parallel to the coast
will cause water to pile up on the Intracoastal Waterway with coastal
flooding possible in low lying areas along the river.

Large battering waves and higher than normal tides on top of the surge
will add to the destructive force of the water during the high tide cycle
around midnight tonight. Entering the water can be deadly as there will
be very large breaking waves building up to 10 feet, in addition to
numerous strong rip currents.

Heavy rainfall is forecast over east central Florida from Dorian, with
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over the coastal counties
and up to 2 to 4 inches inland. While isolated urban and poor drainage
flooding will be possible inland, it will be even more likely near the
coast. Flooding and high water levels on area rivers such as the Saint
Johns River will be aggravated by any additional rainfall.

While threat remains low, isolated tornadoes will be possible in
squalls as they move onshore along the coast through Wednesday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
coastal areas of east central Florida. Remain well sheltered from
life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts. If realized,
these impacts include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding across
along the east central Florida coast. Remain well away from life-
threatening surge having possible significant impacts. If realized,
these impacts include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across all of east central Florida, but particularly over areas
near the coast.
If realized, these impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
      arroyos, and ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across coastal
areas of east central Florida. Prepare to seek shelter if a warning
is issued.
If realized, these impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local officials for recommended preparedness actions, and
heed all evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for
updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a
battery-powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.

During the peak of the storm be ready to move quickly. Keep your
shoes on and rain gear handy. Boots and athletic shoes offer the best
foot protection if you become unexpectedly exposed to the weather.

Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and
check-ins.

Do not be a thrill seeker or risk your life for senseless photos or
videos.

If you are prone to flooding or in an area under a storm surge watch
or warning, be prepared for the possibility of a quick and dramatic
rise in water levels.

If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the
safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 12 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

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