[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 41
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL052019
1205 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

This product covers EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

**Dorian Bringing Large Battering Waves and Tropical Storm Gusts to
the Space and Treasure Coast**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Volusia, Indian River, Martin, Northern Brevard,
      Southern Brevard, and St. Lucie
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Volusia,
      Northern Lake, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and
      Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 150 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral FL or about 100
      miles east of Stuart FL
    - 27.1N 78.6W
    - Storm Intensity 110 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 320 degrees at 2 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian is now moving slowly northwest at 2 mph late this
morning just north of Grand Bahama Island, or about 100 miles east of
Stuart in Martin County. Dorian is expected to move slowly northwest
tonight and  and then turn north-northwest and move parallel to the east
coast of central Florida at a somewhat faster forward speed on Wednesday.

Persons in central Florida should not be lulled into complacency,
weather conditions will continue to deteriorate along coast for the
remainder of the afternoon, Tonight into early Wednesday.

As Dorian makes its closest approach to the area this afternoon and
tonight, coastal impacts being felt in the coastal counties of Martin,
Saint Lucie, Indian River, Brevard and Volusia will worsen. Residents
can expect increasing winds and gusty squalls as well as continued
worsening of ongoing dangerous sea and surf conditions.

There will be considerable impacts and damage to coastal areas with
effects starting to be felt over inland areas as well. The threat for
damaging gusty winds, especially in increasing squalls is high. The threat
for life-threatening storm surge is moderate. Severe beach erosion and
topping or breaching of the dunes from water runup during high tide,
coupled with storm surge will increase.

The latest forecast for Dorian keeps the eye of Dorian about 60 to
70 miles offshore east central Florida at its closest approach. Any
deviation west of the forecast track would bring stronger winds,
higher seas and surf, and heavier rain to the Florida east coast.

The threat for damaging winds will increase for the coastal counties
today! Tropical storm force winds between 35 and 45 mph, with gusts up
to near hurricane force, will be possible near the Treasure Coast into
mid afternoon and then across Brevard County by this evening and tonight.
The strongest winds will reach the Volusia county coast into late evening
tonight and last into Wednesday morning.

Persons along the coast in Martin, Saint Lucie and Indian River
Counties, will need to remain in shelter until conditions improve later
tonight. Father north in Brevard and Volusia, people should remain indoors
as stronger winds develop through the afternoon and tonight.

Inland communities will also have an increased threat for tropical
storm force wind gusts, mainly in eastern Okeechobee, Osceola, Orange, and
Seminole Counties, as well as inland Volusia County. Increasing gusty
winds will reach Okeechobee and Osceola Counties by this afternoon,
and farther north overnight tonight into early Wednesday.

The threat for life-threatening storm surge is moderate, and severe
erosion of the beaches and dune lines is a near certainty! The
combination of surge and high astronomical tides will cause severe
runup of waves and water, resulting in inundation of many coastal
locations. Surge may reach 3 to 5 feet above ground near the coast.
The surge of north winds as the hurricane moves parallel to the coast
will cause water to pile up on the Intracoastal Waterway with coastal
flooding possible in low lying areas along the river.

Large battering waves and higher than normal tides on top of the surge
will add to the destructive force of the water during several high
tide cycles. Entering the water can be deadly as there will be very
large breaking waves building up to 10 feet, in addition to numerous
strong rip currents.

Heavy rainfall is forecast over east central Florida from Dorian, with
total amounts of 4 to 8 inches over the coastal counties and up to 3 to
6 inches inland, with maximum isolated rainfall amounts up to
10 inches along the coast. While isolated urban and poor drainage
flooding will be possible inland, it will be even more likely near the
coast. Flooding and high water levels on area rivers such as the Saint
Johns River will be aggravated by any additional rainfall.

While threat remains low, isolated tornadoes will be possible in
squalls as they move onshore along the coast through Wednesday.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet.

Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across the coastal counties of Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, Saint
Lucie and Martin counties.

Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.


* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across all of east central Florida, but particularly over areas
near the coast.

Potential impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become
      swollen and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across the coastal counties.

Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by now.
Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or
possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 6 PM, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$

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