[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 41
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC  AL052019
1149 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

This product covers Eastern North Carolina

**DORIAN FINALLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND GROWING IN SIZE**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Coastal Onslow, East
      Carteret, Inland Onslow, and West Carteret

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Beaufort, Hatteras Island,
      Jones, Mainland Dare, Mainland Hyde, Northern Craven, Northern
      Outer Banks, Ocracoke Island, Pamlico, Southern Craven,
      Tyrrell, and Washington
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Duplin, Greene, Lenoir,
      Martin, and Pitt
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Onslow, East Carteret, Inland Onslow, and West Carteret

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 590 miles south-southwest of Buxton NC or about 540 miles
      south-southwest of Morehead City NC
    - 27.1N 78.6W
    - Storm Intensity 110 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 320 degrees at 2 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian remains a dangerous hurricane and is
expected to move along the Southeast Coast Wednesday, approaching the
North Carolina coast Thursday and Friday. There is still some
uncertainty regarding the exact forecast track, but significant
impacts are expected across Eastern North Carolina. A slight shift in
the track could change impacts drastically. Regardless, this is a very
large system and impacts will be felt well away from the center.

Potentially life threatening storm surge impacts are expected with
Hurricane Dorian. Based on the current forecast, inundation of 4 to
7 feet above ground will be possible from Surf City to Cape Lookout.
Life threatening storm surge impacts are also expected along areas
adjacent to the Southern Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
and Pungo Rivers and isolated areas across the Southern Albemarle Sound.
A small shift in the track could change what locations may see the
most significant inundation.

Very high surf and large breaking waves will likely result in moderate
to significant beach erosion and ocean overwash along the North
Carolina coast Thursday and Friday. Overwash and sound side flooding
will likely cause issues on Highway 12 on the Outer Banks Thursday and
Friday. Vulnerable areas could experience erosion at multiple high
tide cycles.

Hurricane Dorian will produce very heavy rainfall across Eastern North
Carolina, with moderate to significant impacts possible. Current
forecasts show rainfall amounts ranging from around 5 inches over the
coastal plain, to 15 inches or more along the coast. These heavy
rainfall amounts in a relative short period of time will likely
produce flash flooding across Eastern North Carolina Thursday through
Friday afternoon. That being said small changes in the forecast could
shift the heaviest axis of rainfall further inland or just off the
coast, so continue to monitor the latest updates. Some minor to
moderate river flooding will also be possible Friday and into the
weekend, especially for smaller rivers and creeks east of the coastal
plain. This too is track dependent and could shift.

The strongest winds are expected Thursday night into Friday morning.
Tropical storm force winds could develop as early as Wednesday night,
with winds peaking Thursday evening into early Friday morning.
Hurricane force winds will be possible, especially for areas along the
coast. These strong winds will have the ability to knock down trees,
weak structures, and cause widespread power outages.

Isolated tornadoes will be possible Wednesday through Thursday night.

Very dangerous marine conditions are expected with seas 15 to 25 feet
and higher. A high threat of rip currents will continue for all area
beaches and it is advised to stay out of the water.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding across eastern North Carolina,
especially near the coast where the highest rainfall amounts
are currently forecast. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to
significant impacts across coastal counties.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible extensive impacts
across coastal eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.


* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across eastern North Carolina, especially near the coast where
the highest winds are currently forecast.
Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across the Coastal Plain counties of eastern
North Carolina.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess
the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If
you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do
not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation
orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

If evacuating, follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Newport/Morehead City NC around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
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