[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 40
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL052019
528 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

This product covers EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

**Stationary Dorian Expected to Finally Start moving North-Northwest
Later Today**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Volusia, Indian River, Martin, Northern Brevard,
      Southern Brevard, and St. Lucie
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Volusia,
      Northern Lake, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and
      Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 170 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral FL or about 110
      miles east of Stuart FL
    - 26.9N 78.4W
    - Storm Intensity 120 mph
    - Movement Stationary

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian has remained nearly stationary since Monday morning
just north of Grand Bahama Island, or about 110 miles east of Stuart
in Martin County. Dorian is expected to resume a slow northwestward
motion this morning, then turn north-northwest and move parallel to the
east coast of central Florida at a faster forward speed later today
and Wednesday.

Persons in central Florida should not be lulled into complacency
because weather conditions have yet to significantly worsen! This is
because the center of Dorian has been stationary since stalling out
around this time on Monday.

As Dorian makes its closest approach to the area later today and
tonight, impacts being felt in the coastal counties of Martin, Saint
Lucie, Indian River, Brevard and Volusia will worsen. Residents can
expect increasing winds and gusty squalls as well as continued
worsening of ongoing dangerous sea and surf conditions.

There will be considerable impacts and damage to coastal areas with
effects starting to be felt over inland areas as well. The threat for
damaging gusty winds, especially in increasing squalls, as well as
life-threatening storm surge remains high! Severe beach erosion and
topping or breaching of the dunes from water runup during high tide,
coupled with storm surge will increase.

The latest forecast for Dorian keeps the eye of Dorian about 60 to
70 miles offshore east central Florida at its closest approach. This
is a little farther than indicated by earlier forecasts. However, any
deviation west of the forecast track would bring stronger winds,
higher seas and surf, and heavier rain to the Florida east coast.

The threat for damaging winds will increase for the coastal counties
today. Tropical storm force winds between 40 and 45 mph, with gusts
to near hurricane force, will spread north from coastal Martin and
Saint Lucie Counties into Indian River and Brevard Counties by this
afternoon and evening, and coastal Volusia County later tonight.

Persons along the coast in Martin, Saint Lucie and Indian River
Counties, will need to remain in shelter until conditions improve late
tonight. Father north in southern Brevard County, sheltering in place
will need to commence later today. Residents of northern Brevard and
Volusia Counties will have a few hours through late morning, for some
last-minute safety preparations before needing to shelter there.

Inland communities will also have an increased threat for tropical
storm force winds, mainly in eastern Okeechobee, Osceola, Orange, and
Seminole Counties, as well as inland Volusia County. Increasing gusty
winds will reach Okeechobee and Osceola Counties by this afternoon,
and farther north this overnight into Wednesday.

The threat for life-threatening storm surge also remains high, and
severe erosion of the beaches and dune lines is a near certainty! The
combination of surge and high astronomical tides will cause severe
runup of waves and water, resulting in inundation of many coastal
locations. Surge may reach 4 to 7 feet above ground near the coast.
The surge of north winds as the hurricane moves parallel to the coast
will cause water to pile up on the Intracoastal Waterway with coastal
flooding possible in low lying areas along the river.

Large battering waves and higher than normal tides on top of the surge
will add to the destructive force of the water during several high
tide cycles. Entering the water can be deadly as there will be very
large breaking waves building up to 10 feet, in addition to numerous
strong rip currents.

Heavy rainfall is forecast over east central Florida from Dorian, with
total amounts of 4 to 8 inches over the coastal counties and 2 to 6
inches inland, with maximum isolated rainfall amounts up to 10 inches
along the coast. While isolated urban and poor drainage flooding will
be possible inland, it will be even more likely near the coast.
Flooding and high water levels on area rivers such as the Saint Johns
River will be aggravated by any additional rainfall

While threat remains low, isolated tornadoes will be possible in
squalls as they move onshore along the coast this evening through
Tuesday.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet.

    Increasing impacts in this area include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.


* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
over the coastal counties of Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, Saint
Lucie and Martin.

    Increasing impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across the interior counties of Lake, Seminole,
Orange, Osceola, and Okeechobee. Move any unsecured objects inside.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across all of east central Florida, but particularly over areas
near the coast.

     Potential impacts include:
    - Heavy rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
      arroyos, and ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the interior, especially in urban and poorly
drained low lying areas.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts along
the coast. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, little to no impact is
anticipated.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time. Follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by now.
Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or
possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 12 Noon EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Cristaldi
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