[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Tue Sep 3 04:09:30 CDT 2019

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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 40
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL052019
509 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**DORIAN STILL NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER THIS MORNING**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Inland Camden, Inland Duval, Inland Glynn, and
      Inland Nassau
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Coastal Camden,
      Coastal Duval, Coastal Glynn, and Coastal Nassau

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Inland Glynn
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Clay, Eastern Marion,
      Inland Camden, Inland Duval, Inland Nassau, and Putnam
    - A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal
      Glynn, and Coastal Nassau
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Inland Flagler and Inland
      St. Johns
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Flagler and Coastal St. Johns

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 300 miles southeast of Jacksonville FL or about 280 miles
      southeast of St. Augustine FL
    - 26.9N 78.4W
    - Storm Intensity 120 mph
    - Movement Stationary

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian has weakened modestly in the past several hours,
but remains a major hurricane with peak winds near 120
mph. Dorian has been nearly stationary yesterday and most of the
night, but is finally showing signs that it will soon resume a more
northerly course. Today, the storm is forecast to begin to move away from
the Bahamas and slowly towards the Florida coast. As Dorian approaches,
it is forecast to run parallel to the Florida coastline into Wednesday.

With a track that is parallel and close to the coast, small east-west
changes in the forecast track could have large influences on the
threat to Northeast Florida for damaging winds and life-threatening
storm surge. If Dorian were to approach even closer, it would produce
more serious impacts to coastal areas. For this reason, both a
tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect.

Listen to local officials and heed evacuation orders as given. Large
battering waves and higher than normal tides will add to the
destructive potential, along with beach erosion.

Heavy rainfall is forecast over eastern parts of northeast Florida and
coastal southeast Georgia and with total accumulations of 3 to
6 inches, with maximum isolated rainfall amounts to 8 inches along the
east coast. Flash flooding is possible, especially in urban and poorly
drained areas.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts across the beaches of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across coastal areas across northeast Florida and southeast
Georgia. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across adjacent inland portions of northeast
Florida and southeast Georgia.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across coastal counties of northeast Florida and
southeast Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across inland portions of northeast Florida and southeast
Georgia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind, falling
trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move, relocate to
a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep roadways open
for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time to
get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle ahead of
time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose items
and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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