[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 39
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL052019
1148 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

This product covers EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

**Category 4 Hurricane Dorian Continues Nearly Stationary Near Grand
 Bahama Island**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Volusia, Indian River, Martin, Northern Brevard,
      Southern Brevard, and St. Lucie
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Volusia,
      Northern Lake, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and
      Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 160 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral FL or about 110
      miles east of Stuart FL
    - 26.9N 78.5W
    - Storm Intensity 130 mph
    - Movement Stationary

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Powerful Hurricane Dorian remains nearly stationary just north of
Grand Bahama Island, about 115 miles east-southeast of Stuart in Martin
County. Dorian is expected to resume a slow northwestward motion
overnight, then turn north-northwest and move parallel to the east
coast of central Florida at a slightly faster forward speed Tuesday
into early Wednesday.

Significant coastal impacts from Dorian are being felt in Martin,
Saint Lucie, Indian River, and Brevard Counties and will spread soon
into Volusia County. Weather conditions will steadily deteriorate
across all of east central Florida, and especially along the coast, as
Dorian makes its closest approach to the area.

There will be considerable impacts and damage to coastal areas, with
at least some effects felt inland as well! The threat for damaging
winds and life-threatening storm surge remains high. Severe beach
erosion and topping or breaching of the dunes from water runup during
high tide, coupled with storm surge is a near certainty!

While the latest forecast keeps the eye of Dorian offshore by about
50 to 60 miles, even a slight deviation west of the forecast track
would bring stronger winds, even higher seas and surf, and heavier
rain to the Florida east coast.

Strong tropical storm force winds between 40 and 55 mph, with gusts to
hurricane force, will spread north into Martin and Saint Lucie
Counties overnight, spread farther north into Indian River County
during the pre-dawn hours, and then across Brevard and coastal Volusia
Counties Tuesday through Tuesday night.

The threat for damaging winds is high for the coastal counties!
Preparations for Dorian should have been completed. Persons along the
coast, especially those in Martin, Saint Lucie and Indian River
Counties, will need to remain in shelter until conditions improve on
Wednesday. Father north in southern Brevard County, sheltering in
place will need to commence sometime on Tuesday. Residents of north
Brevard and Volusia Counties will have a few hours, mainly during the
morning for some last-minute safety preparations.

Inland communities will also have an increasing threat for sustained
winds near tropical storm force, with higher gusts in squalls,
especially in eastern Okeechobee, Osceola, Orange and Seminole
Counties, as well as inland Volusia County. These strong winds will
reach Okeechobee and Osceola Counties beginning early Tuesday morning,
and farther north winds to near tropical storm force will begin Tuesday
afternoon. This will be a long duration event, with the worst
conditions lasting 18 to 24 hours!

The threat for life-threatening storm surge also remains high, and
severe erosion of the beaches and dune lines is a near certainty! The
combination of surge and high astronomical tides will cause severe
runup of waves and water, resulting in inundation of many coastal
locations. Surge may reach 4 to 7 feet above ground near the coast.
The surge of north winds as the hurricane moves parallel to the coast
will cause water to pile up on the Intracoastal Waterway with coastal
flooding possible in low lying areas along the river.

Large battering waves and higher than normal tides on top of the surge
will add to the destructive force of the water during several high
tide cycles. Entering the water can be deadly as there will be very
large breaking waves building in excess of 10 feet, in addition to
numerous strong rip currents.

A high tide cycle is currently ongoing, and the next 3 high tide
cycles will occur Tuesday between 1145 AM and noon, Wednesday around
midnight, and again in the early afternoon between 1245 and 100 PM.

Heavy rainfall is forecast over east central Florida from Dorian, with
total amounts of 4 to 8 inches over the coastal counties and 3 to 6
inches inland, with maximum isolated rainfall amounts up to 10 inches
along the coast. While flooding will be possible inland, it will be
much more likely near the coast in urban and poorly drained, low lying
areas. Flooding and high water levels on area rivers such as the Saint
Johns River will be aggravated by any additional rainfall, resulting in
additional rises on the river.

While threat remains low, isolated tornadoes will be possible in
squalls as they move onshore along the coast this evening through


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet.

    Increasing impacts in this area include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.


* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
over the coastal counties of Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, Saint
Lucie and Martin.

    Increasing impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across the interior counties of Lake, Seminole,
Orange, Osceola, and Okeechobee. Move any unsecured objects inside.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across all of east central Florida, but particularly over areas
near the coast.

     Potential impacts include:
    - Heavy rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
      arroyos, and ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the interior, especially in urban and poorly
drained low lying areas.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts along
the coast. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, little to no impact is
anticipated.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time. Follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by now.
Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or
possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.


NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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