[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Mon Sep 2 16:39:08 CDT 2019
WTUS82 KJAX 022138
HLSJAX
FLZ020-021-023>025-030>033-035-037-038-122-124-125-133-136-138-140-222-236-240-340-GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364-030545-
Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 38
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL AL052019
538 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019
This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia
**Dorian Continues To Impact The Northwest Bahamas As A Category 4
Hurricane**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge
Warning and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Inland
Glynn
- The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge
Warning for Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal Glynn, and
Coastal Nassau
- The Hurricane Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning
for Inland Flagler and Inland St. Johns
- The Hurricane Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning
and the Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge
Warning for Coastal Flagler and Coastal St. Johns
- The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Clay, Eastern Marion, and Putnam
- A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Inland Camden
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect
for Inland Glynn
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal Glynn, and Coastal Nassau
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Inland Flagler and Inland
St. Johns
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Coastal Flagler and Coastal St. Johns
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Inland Camden, Inland
Duval, and Inland Nassau
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Clay, Eastern Marion,
and Putnam
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 310 miles southeast of Jacksonville FL
- 26.8N 78.4W
- Storm Intensity 145 mph
- Movement Stationary
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Major Hurricane Dorian is a powerful and extremely dangerous Category 4
hurricane with peak winds near 145 mph. Dorian's forward progress has
slowed and is nearly stationary over northwestern Bahamas this afternoon.
By Tuesday, powerful Dorian is forecast to turn northwest on its way
towards the Florida coast. As Dorian slowly approaches, it is forecast
to turn north-northwest and parallel the coastline Tuesday into Wednesday.
At this time, the exact track remains uncertain, and small changes
in the forecast track could have large influences on the threat of
damaging winds and life-threatening storm surge. Should Dorian
approach even closer, it would produce more serious impacts to
coastal areas.
Listen to local officials and heed evacuation orders as given. Large
battering waves and higher than normal tides will add to the
destructive potential, along with beach erosion.
Heavy rainfall is forecast over eastern parts of northeast Florida
and coastal southeast Georgia and with total accumulations of 4 to
8 inches...with maximum isolated rainfall amounts to 10 inches along
the east coast. Flash flooding is possible, especially in urban
and poorly drained areas.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible extensive impacts
across the beaches of coastal northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.
As well as the mouth of the St Johns River. Potential impacts in this area
include:
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.
* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across coastal sections of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
access routes impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.
Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across inland Nassau, inland Duval, Clay,
Putnam and eastern Marion Counties.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across coastal northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.
Potential impacts include:
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.
* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
Portions of coastal northeast Florida. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
*BEACH HAZARDS:
Prepare for minor to possible moderate beach erosion, high surf,
and extremely dangerous rip currents along the adjacent beaches of
coastal northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.
- Very dangerous rip currents are expected ahead of the
approach of Major Hurricane Dorian. Surf is expected to be
around the 15 to 25 feet range Tuesday through Wednesday.
- Significant to severe beach erosion can be expected during
times of high tide in association with building surf early
this week.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.
For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.
If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.
Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.
If evacuating, follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.
If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.
If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.
Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.
When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.
Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.
Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 12 AM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
$$
Frye
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