[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 37
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL052019
1148 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**Dorian Weakens Slightly But Remains A Very Dangerous Category 4
Hurricane**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch have been issued for
      Coastal Camden and Coastal Glynn
    - A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Inland Glynn

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal Flagler, Coastal Glynn,
      Coastal Nassau, and Coastal St. Johns
    - A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Inland Flagler and Inland
      St. Johns
    - A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Inland Glynn
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Clay, Eastern Marion,
      Inland Duval, Inland Nassau, and Putnam

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 310 miles southeast of Jacksonville FL
    - 26.8N 78.3W
    - Storm Intensity 155 mph
    - Movement West or 280 degrees at 1 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Major Hurricane Dorian is a powerful and extremely dangerous
Category 4 hurricane with peak winds near 155 mph. Dorian's forward
progress has slowed as it continue to move west through the
northwestern Bahamas. By Tuesday, powerful Dorian is forecast
to turn northwest on its way towards the Florida coast. As Dorian
slowly approaches, it is forecast to turn north-northwest and
parallel the coastline Tuesday into Wednesday.

At this time, the exact track remains uncertain, and small changes
in the forecast track could have large influences on the threat of
damaging winds and life-threatening storm surge. Regardless, as the
storm slowly draws closer, the risk has increased with the latest
forecast. Should Dorian approach even closer, it would produce
more serious impacts to coastal areas.

Listen to local officials and heed evacuation orders as given. Large
battering waves and higher than normal tides will add to the
destructive potential, along with beach erosion.

Heavy rainfall is forecast over eastern parts of northeast Florida
and coastal southeast Georgia and with total accumulations of 4 to
8 inches...with maximum isolated rainfall amounts to 10 inches along
the east coast. Flash flooding is possible, especially in urban
and poorly drained areas.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible extensive impacts
across the beaches of coastal northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.
As well as the mouth of the St Johns River. Potential impacts in this
area include:

    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across coastal sections of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.
Potential impacts in this area include:

    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across inland Nassau, inland Duval, Clay, Putnam
and eastern Marion Counties.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across coastal northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.
Potential impacts include:

    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

If evacuating, follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 6 PM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Frye
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