[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 36
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL052019
541 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

This product covers EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

**Category 5 Hurricane Dorian Moving Slowly Near Grand Bahama Island**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Okeechobee and Osceola

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Indian River, Martin, Northern Brevard, Southern Brevard, and
      St. Lucie
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Inland Volusia,
      Northern Lake, Orange, Seminole, and Southern Lake
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Okeechobee and Osceola
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Volusia

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 190 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral FL or about 130
      miles east-southeast of Stuart FL
    - 26.6N 78.2W
    - Storm Intensity 165 mph
    - Movement West or 270 degrees at 1 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Extremely powerful Hurricane Dorian has slowed to a crawl over the
northwestern Bahamas as its eye wall continues to pound Grand Bahama
and Great Abaco Islands early this morning. The situation remains very
serious for east central Florida, and especially the coastal counties
of Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian River, Brevard and Volusia.

Dorian remains an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane with winds
near 165 mph. Dorian will slowly emerge north of Grand Bahama Island
later today, and will begin to move very slowly toward the northwest
and closer to east central Florida through tonight. As Dorian slowly
begins to make its closest approach to east central Florida, it is
expected to turn north-northwest and parallel the coast from Tuesday
into Wednesday.

Although it remains uncertain just how close the eye of Dorian will
get to the Florida east coast, the threat of damaging winds and life-
threatening storm surge remains high. There will be considerable
impacts and damage to coastal areas, with at least some effects felt
inland as well!

Strong tropical storm force winds between 40 and 55 mph, with gusts to
hurricane force, will spread north into Martin and Saint Lucie
Counties starting late this afternoon, spread farther north into
Indian River County by tonight, and then across Brevard and coastal
Volusia Counties Tuesday through Tuesday night. The threat for
damaging winds is high for the coastal counties and any remaining
preparations for Dorian should be rushed to completion before strong
winds move into the area!

Inland communities will also have an increased threat for tropical
storm force winds, especially in eastern Okeechobee, Osceola, Orange
and Seminole Counties, as well as inland Volusia County. These strong
winds will reach Okeechobee and Osceola Counties beginning tonight and
early Tuesday morning. As a result the Tropical Storm Watch has been
upgraded to a Warning. Farther north over the interior, winds to near
tropical storm force will begin Tuesday afternoon. There will be a
long duration event, with the worst conditions lasting 18 to 24 hours!

The threat for life-threatening storm surge also remains high, and
severe erosion of the beaches and dune lines is a near certainty! The
combination of surge and high astronomical tides will cause severe
runup of waves and water, resulting in inundation of many coastal
locations. Surge may reach 4 to 7 feet above ground near the coast.
Large battering waves and higher than normal tides on top of the surge
will add to the destructive force of the water during several high
tide cycles. Needless to say, entering the water will be potentially
deadly, as there will also be numerous strong rip currents in addition
to the very large breaking waves, which will build in excess of 10
feet.

Heavy rainfall is forecast over east central Florida from Dorian, with
total amounts of 4 to 6 inches over the coastal counties and 2 to
5 inches inland, with maximum isolated rainfall amounts up to
10 inches along the coast. While isolated flash flooding will be
possible inland, it will be even more likely near the coast in urban
and poorly drained, low lying areas. Flooding and high water levels on
area rivers such as the Saint Johns River will be aggravated.

While threat remains low, isolated tornadoes will be possible in
squalls as they move onshore along the coast.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across over the coastal counties of Volusia, Brevard, Indian River,
Saint Lucie and Martin. Potential impacts in this area include:

    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across the interior counties of Okeechobee, Osceola, Orange, Seminole
and inland Volusia.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible extensive impacts from
Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet. Potential impacts in this area
include:

    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.


* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across all of east central Florida, with the threat
remaining highest along coastal areas. Potential impacts include:

    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and
      ditches may become dangerous rivers.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.


* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts in the
coastal counties of Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, Saint Lucie and
Martin. Potential impacts include:

    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:


    - Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
      including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
      immediately.

- For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
      falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
      relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
      keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

    - If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra
      time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your
      vehicle ahead of time. Let others know where you are going prior
      to departure. Secure loose items and pets in the car, and avoid
      distracted driving.



* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:


If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.



NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 12 Noon EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Cristaldi
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