[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
727 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 01/2100 UTC, is near 26.6N
77.3W. This position is about 80 nm east of Freeport Grand Bahama
Island, Bahamas and about 150 nm east of West Palm Beach, Florida.
Dorian is moving W at 5 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 160 knots with gusts to 195 knots, making Dorian a Category 5
hurricane. The estimated minimum central pressure is 910 mb.
Numerous strong convection are within 50 to 90 nm of the center in
the N semicircle, and within 90 nm of the center in the S
semicircle. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
elsewhere from 23N-29N between 74W-79W. Dorian should continue to
slowly move westward to west- northwestward for the next day or
two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this
track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will
continue to pound Great Abaco this evening and move near or over
Grand Bahama Island tonight and Monday. The hurricane will move
dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Monday through
Tuesday night. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, and
Dorian is expected to remain a catastrophic hurricane during the
next few days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

A broad area of low pressure centered near the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is
showing signs of becoming better organized and environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development during the
next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of the week while the system moves generally northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during
the next day or so, and interests on those islands should monitor
the progress of this system. This area of low pressure has a
medium chance of development in the next 48 hours, and a high
chance in the next 5 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W S of 16N, moving W
15-20 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm
of the wave.

A tropical wave is along 65W S of 22N, moving W at 15-20 kt. No
significant convection associated with this tropical wave is noted
at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W to 12N34W to 10N47W. The ITCZ begins near 10N47W and
continues to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N-13N
between 17W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An area of low pressure continues to drift westward across the
south-central Gulf of Mexico. A 1010 mb low is analyzed near
23N90W with a trough extending along the low from 21N89W to
27N94W. This low pressure system is igniting scattered moderate
convection across the central and western Gulf from 21N-29N
between 86W-96W. A line of thunderstorms is moving off the coast
of Florida into the eastern Gulf from 25N-30N and E of 84W. Latest
scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate cyclonic winds near
the low pressure with light to gentle winds across the rest of
the basin.

The broad low pressure N of the Yucatan Peninsula will move
slowly W over the SW Gulf through mid week. In the Atlantic,
extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian is over Abaco Island and
will move through the northern Bahamas through early Monday
before turning NW then NNW to parallel the east coasts of Florida
and Georgia through mid week. Tropical storm force winds may
affect the far eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, including
the Florida Big Bend area, Tuesday through Wednesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Ongoing convection across the Yucatan Passage is moving into the
NW Caribbean from 19N-22N between 81W-86W. Some convection from
the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is moving into the SW
Caribbean, S of 10N between 75W-80W. Otherwise, other areas of
significant convection are occurring over Cuba and Hispaniola but
not reaching adjacent waters. Latest scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades north of Venezuela and Colombia, with
light to gentle trades across the rest of the Caribbean.

Hurricane Dorian is moving slowly W over Abaco Island in the
northern Bahamas. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean near
65W will reach the central Caribbean Monday night and western
Caribbean by Wednesday. Moderate to fresh winds are expected
across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate
winds prevailing over the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Mid-level low pressure north of the Greater Antilles is giving
way to scattered moderate convection from 23N-30N between 55W-66W.
A surface trough is noted in from 12N50W to 16N55W, just to the east
of the Lesser Antilles, and is acting as an anchor for scattered
moderate convection from 11N-18N between 48W-56W. A cold front is
moving into the central Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N42W
to 29N50W. Showers are seen within 50 nm of the boundary.

Extremely dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Dorian will move to
26.7N 78.1W tonight, 26.8N 78.7W Monday afternoon, lie just NW of
Grand Bahama Island near 27.0N 79.0W by Monday night. Dorian will
head NNW, paralleling the east coast of Florida to reach 27.7N
79.5W Tuesday afternoon, and 30.0N 80.3W Wednesday afternoon.
Dorian will weaken slightly in intensity as it passes just E of
the South Carolina coast early Thursday, and just E of the North
Carolina coast Friday.

$$
AKR
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