[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 012312
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located over the Abacos Islands.

An area of low pressure located about 100 miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. This system is gradually becoming better organized,
and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development during the next several days.  A tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the southern Cabo Verde
Islands during the next day or two, and interests on those islands
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is located over the south-central
Gulf of Mexico.  This disturbance continues to produce widespread
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.  Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves slowly westward across the southern and southwestern
Gulf of Mexico toward the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda.  Although the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of organization, the
system does not currently have a closed surface circulation. Some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next
few days while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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