[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 33
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL052019
1200 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

This product covers EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

**Powerful Hurricane Dorian Will Bring Potential Significant Wind
and Storm Surge Impacts Along the East Central Florida Coast**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch have been issued for
      Indian River, Martin, Northern Brevard, Southern Brevard, and
      St. Lucie
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Okeechobee and
      Osceola

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Northern Brevard and Southern Brevard
    - A Tropical Storm Warning, Storm Surge Watch, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Indian River, Martin, and St. Lucie
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Okeechobee and Osceola

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 270 miles east-southeast of Cape Canaveral FL or about
      220 miles east-southeast of Stuart FL
    - 26.5N 76.8W
    - Storm Intensity 180 mph
    - Movement West or 270 degrees at 7 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

The situation has become more serious, especially for the east
central Florida coastal counties. Major Hurricane Dorian is a powerful
and extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane having winds near
180 mph. As Dorian continues to move west toward the northwestern
Bahamas, it will slow its forward speed as it moves across the islands
tonight. By tomorrow, powerful Dorian is forecast to turn northwest
toward the central Florida Atlantic waters. As Dorian slowly begins to
make its nearest approach, it is then forecast to turn north-northwest
and parallel the coast in close proximity on Tuesday into Wednesday.

Although the exact track remains uncertain, the threat of damaging
winds and life-threatening storm surge has increased with the latest
forecast. There is a chance that Dorian could approach even closer,
producing considerable impacts to coastal areas.

Hurricane force winds will be possible for the Space and Treasure
Coasts as Dorian draws near, particularly in places where hurricane
watches and tropical storm warnings are now in effect. Hurricane force
winds are becoming possible for coastal areas north along the coast
through Daytona Beach and Ormond Beach. The threat for damaging winds
is high for all coastal counties where preparations should be made for
the potential of hurricane force winds. Inland counties, especially
those currently under a tropical storm watch, should protect against
hazardous winds. Inland areas closer to the coast will have a greater
potential for strong tropical storm force winds.

The threat for storm surge is also high. The combination of a
dangerous storm surge and tide may cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.
Life-threatening surge waters may reach 4 to 7 feet above ground
within the watch area. Listen to local officials and heed evacuation
orders if given. Large battering waves and higher than normal tides
will add to the destructive potential, along with severe dune erosion.

Heavy rainfall is forecast over east central Florida with total
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches with maximum isolated rainfall amounts
to 10 inches along the east coast. Flash flooding is possible,
especially in urban and poorly drained areas, with river flooding to
continue at some points and develop at others.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
from Brevard to Martin counties. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across interior portions of east central Florida.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible extensive impacts
along the coast from Brevard to Martin counties. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across coastal sections of east central Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
      arroyos, and ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local officials for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor drainage
area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to
safe shelter on higher ground.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds or
flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.


NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 6 PM, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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