[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMLB 011000
HLSMLB
FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-012300-

Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 32
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL052019
600 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

This product covers EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

**Extremely Dangerous Hurricane Dorian drawing close to East Central
Florida Monday through Tuesday...

**Significant Coastal Impacts Expected**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Indian River, Martin, and St. Lucie

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Indian River, Martin,
      and St. Lucie

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 310 miles east-southeast of Cape Canaveral FL or about
      270 miles east of Stuart FL
    - 26.4N 76.0W
    - Storm Intensity 150 mph
    - Movement West or 280 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Major Hurricane Dorian continues to move west toward the northwestern
Bahamas. Dorian will slow its forward speed as it moves across the
islands tonight. By Monday, powerful Dorian will turn northwest toward
the central Florida Atlantic waters. As Dorian slowly begins to make its
closest point of approach to east central Florida, it is then forecast
to turn toward the north-northwest and move parallel to the coast.

The exact track forecast remains uncertain, and east central Florida
remains under the threat of direct impacts from Dorian, especially
along the coast. Battering waves and significant water runup along the
coast is expected through several high tide cycles. Damaging winds and
flooding rain are also significant concerns.

Dorian will remain a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane as it makes its
closest approach to east central Florida. While the current forecast
keeps the center of Dorian offshore, those along the Treasure Coast
should prepare for Tropical Storm conditions arriving early Monday
morning. Farther north, Tropical Storm conditions are forecast to
arrive in Brevard County by Monday night, and Volusia County on
Tuesday.

Gusts to Tropical Storm force will be possible across interior areas,
especially in passing squalls, as Dorian makes its nearest approach to
the central Florida coast from Monday night through Tuesday.

Along the coast, large battering waves and increasing surf will begin
to impact the beaches today with a rising risk for major beach erosion
and coastal flooding during the times of high tides this morning
around 10 AM, tonight around 1030 PM, around noon on Monday, and
Monday evening around 11 PM.

Elevated water levels with high surf and wind driven piling of water
along the coast will cause moderate to severe erosion of dunes and the
risk of coastal flooding. In some areas, wave runup may overtop dunes
and cause coastal flooding to portions of the barrier islands. Strong
north winds may also develop, bringing the risk of coastal flooding
along low lying properties along the intracoastal waterways. If evacuation
orders are issued for your area, heed official instructions.

Heavy rainfall is forecast over east central Florida with storm total
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches with maximum isolated rainfall amounts
to 10 inches along the east coast. Flash flooding is possible, especially
in urban and poorly drained areas, with river flooding to continue at
some points and develop at others.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across Indian river, Saint Lucie and Martin Counties. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.


* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:

     - Significant impacts from Dorian will be felt along coastal areas.
       The combination of wind driven runup of waves and elevated water
       levels will produce a significant risk of moderate to severe beach
       erosion and coastal inundation, and breaching of dunes in some
       areas. Round pounding surf and numerous strong rip currents will
       make any attempt to enter the surf potentially deadly.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts, mainly across the coastal counties of Brevard, Indian River,
Saint Lucie and Martin Counties. Potential impacts include:

    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
      arroyos, and ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* SURGE:
Prepare for local storm surge of up to 2 feet having limited impacts
along the coast from flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet. This will enhance
the water runup along the beaches around the times of high tides.
Potential impacts include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local officials for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor drainage
area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to
safe shelter on higher ground.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds or
flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.


NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around Noon, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net