[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Rebekah is centered near 38.5N 38.8W at 31/0300
UTC or 556 nm W of the Azores. The estimated central pressure is
987 mb and estimated maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Rebekah is moving E at 15 kt. Scattered showers
are seen within 100 nm of the center in the NE and SE quadrant.
Rebekah is expected to turn toward the east-northeast early
Thursday. A turn back toward the east and east-southeast is
anticipated on late Thursday and Friday. Little change in strength
is anticipated for the next day or so, but gradual weakening is
expected thereafter. Rebekah is forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone on Friday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...Western Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front stretches across the western Gulf of Mexico from
30N93W to 26N97W. Gale force winds will develop NW of the front by
0600 UTC with seas building to 8-11 ft. As the front pushes
eastward, gale-force winds will continue behind the front, mostly
S of 21N and W of 95W. Seas are expected to reach 21 ft. These
conditions will continue through early Friday. See the latest High
Seas Forecast product, listed under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W S of 17N and is
moving W at 10 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen
along the wave but no significant convection is noted.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W S of 17N and is
moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is currently
associated with this wave.

An east-central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W S of 20N
and is moving W at 10 kt. Showers are currently moving across
Puerto Rico and the northern portion of the wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W S of 22N and is
moving W at 10 kt. An upper level low is in the wave's environment
which is enhancing scattered moderate convection in the northern
vicinity of the wave,


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W to 07N22W to 05N35W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along and south of the monsoon trough from
01N-07N between 20W-34W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is also moving off the coast of Sierra Leone from 06N-10N and E of
15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is pushing across the NW Gulf of Mexico. See the
special features section for more details. Scattered moderate
convection is seen adjacent to the front mostly from 26N-30N and W
of 91W. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen in the eastern Bay
of Campeche. Upper level ridging in the eastern Gulf is keeping
conditions tranquil. The latest scatterometer data depicts calm to
light winds across the Gulf.

Strong gale force winds and building seas of up to 20 or 21 ft
will follow a strong cold front forecast to reach from SE
Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico later tonight, from the western
Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche by Thursday
afternoon, and from central Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche
on Friday. Winds are expected to diminish below gale force by
Friday morning. Strong high pressure behind the front will bring
fresh to locally strong northerly winds during the upcoming
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

An upper level low is centered across western Cuba. See the
tropical waves section for more details on convection associated
with it. Isolated thunderstorms are also moving south of the
Cayman Islands and west of Jamaica. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are in the SW Caribbean due to enhancement from the
eastern Pacific monsoon trough, mostly S of 14N between 78W-83W.
Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh winds north of Colombia,
the Gulf of Venezuela, and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds
are seen in the central Caribbean, otherwise gentle winds prevail
across the rest of the basin.

Moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the Caribbean
through Sunday. Large long period NE swell is propagating through
the tropical north Atlantic waters tonight as well as all the
Caribbean passages. This swell event, with seas in the 8 to 9 ft
range, will subside by late Saturday or Saturday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the eastern and central Atlantic,
entering the waters near 31N34W to 19N53W to 25N72W. The front
stalls from 25N72W northward into the western Atlantic near
32N79W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 30 nm of the
front in addition to 100 nm behind the front between 48W-56W. The
latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh ENE winds are
seen across the Atlantic, N of 22N between 51W-72W. Strong winds
are also seen behind the cold front N of 30N.

High pressure building southward across the region will support
moderate to fresh winds through early Friday. Large long period
NE swell will continue to move across the forecast waters and
reach the Caribbean passages on Thursday evening before subsiding
Saturday. Seas associated with this swell event are expected to
peak at around 10 to 11 ft. A cold front will move off the coast
of NE Florida late Thursday night followed by fresh to locally
strong NW-N winds. The front is forecast to reach from 31N75W to
SE Florida by Friday evening, then stall from 31N73W to West Palm
Beach, Florida Saturday night through Sunday.

$$
AKR
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