[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300716
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
316 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...Central Atlantic Gale Warning...

A central Atlantic cold front extends from 31N41W to 24N54W to
30N73W, then transitions to stationary north of the area. Gale
force winds are expected N of 29N and east of the front to 40W,
with seas 12-16 ft. These conditions will through Wednesday
morning. By 30/1800 UTC, a stationary front is expected to
extends from 31N37W to 24N48W. A new cold front will extend from
31N45W to 27N51W to 29N57W. Gale- force winds are forecast N of
29N and east of the stationary front, with seas ranging between
12-17 ft. These conditions will continue through early Thu. See
the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Western Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will push eastward across the western Gulf of Mexico
from 30N93W to 27N97W on Wednesday night. Gale force winds are
expected NW of the front with seas 8-11 ft. As the front moves
farther east, it will stretch from 30N91W to 27N93W to 22N97W
with gale force winds expected S of 26N and W of the front. Seas
are expected to be 8-12 ft. These conditions will continue through
early Friday. See the latest High Seas Forecast product, under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 44W S of
16N and is moving west at about 10-15 kt. This wave is in the
leading edge of a dry/dusty Saharan airmass and is well depicted
in satellite imagery. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted in the northern portion of the wave from 14N-17N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 53W S of
13N and is moving west at about 10 kt. This wave is also well
depicted in satellite imagery. There is no significant convection
currently associated with this wave.

An eastern Carribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 65W S
of 19N and is moving west at 10 kt. This wave is well depicted in
satellite imagery and scatterometer data. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along the central portion of the wave from
14N-15N.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave extends it axis along 79W
S of 21N and is moving west at 10 kt. An upper-level low is in
the wave's environment combining with it to enhance convection
north of 18N. The monsoon trough extends along 09N. This is also
enhancing convection with the wave mainly south of 13N between
77W- 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 07N31W. The ITCZ extends from 07N31W to 10N41W, then
continues W of a tropical wave from 07N45W to 08N52W. Aside from
the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is along the monsoon trough from 02N-09N between 18W-
29W, and within 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 31W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf from the
Florida Big Bend near 29N83W to the SE Louisiana coast near 29N89W
to just off the middle Texas coast near 28N96W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the front mainly
north of 27N between 87W-92W. A surface trough is over the
central Gulf from 27N93W to 29N89W. Isolated thunderstorms are
also noted in the central and southern Gulf mostly from 23N-26N
between 85W-89W. Isolated thunderstorms are also in the Bay of
Campeche. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
southerly winds in the north-central Gulf with gentle winds
elsewhere.

The stationary front will continue producing scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the central Gulf which may lead to locally
gusty winds and rough seas. The trough will weaken as it lifts
northwestward to the NW Gulf on Wednesday. The scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity will continue through late Wednesday. A
strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wednesday night. It
will quickly move eastward toward SE Louisiana to Tampico early
Thu, then the eastern Florida Panhandle to inland Minatitlan,
Mexico by early Thursday evening. By early Friday, the front will
stretch from central Florida to the central Bay of Campeche. The
front will weaken as it reaches from near SW Florida to the
eastern Bay of Campeche early Fri evening. Gale force northerly
winds and building seas are expected west of the front over most
of the western Gulf waters Wednesday night through early Friday.
Winds and seas will decrease Friday and Friday night. A secondary
cold front will sweep across the area Saturday afternoon through
Sunday night increasing the northerly winds to fresh to strong
speeds over most locations. Seas will build over the SW Gulf and
in the far W- central Gulf late Saturday through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

An upper level low centered between Cuba and Jamaica is leading to
scattered moderate convection across southern Cuba and the
Windward Passage. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are noted
across the Gulf of Honduras. The latest scatterometer data depicts
fresh easterly winds north of Colombia with moderate trades across
the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are
also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle trades prevail
elsewhere.

Fresh to locally strong trades near the coast of Colombia will
diminish Wednesday afternoon to mainly fresh speeds. Otherwise,
moderate trades will remain across the central and eastern
Caribbean through Saturday night, while gentle trades remain over
the northwestern Caribbean. Large long-period northeast swell
propagating through the central Atlantic and into the Caribbean
Passages will subside early tonight. A large set of large north-
northeast swell will propagate through the tropical north Atlantic
waters and northeast Caribbean passages Wednesday through Friday
and begin to slowly early on Saturday through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for information about the Gale
Warning currently in effect and the tropical waves moving across
the basin.

A stationary front extends across the central Atlantic from
31N31W to 23N45W to 21N61W. Between this stationary front and the
cold front discussed in the Gale Warning section, scattered
moderate to strong convection is seen from 22N-31N between 32W-
44W. Scattered thunderstorms are also seen east of the Leeward
Islands from 14N-16N between 57W-60W. Surface ridging prevails
across the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered
near 35N10W. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong to gale
force winds in the area discussed in the Gale Warning section in
addition to fresh northerly winds N of 23N between 29W-57W.

Stronger high pressure is building southward across the western
part of the area. This will allow mainly fresh northeast to east
winds across most of the area through Wednesday. A surge of fresh
to strong northeast to east winds will spread from E to W across
the eastern part of the area from Wednesday evening through
Thursday night. A weakening cold front will move over the far
northwest part of the area late Thursday night into Friday. It
will reach east-central Florida Friday night, then become
stationary through Saturday night. Large long-period northeast
swell propagating through the waters S of 25N and east of the
Bahamas will slowly subside through early Tuesday evening. A
large set of long-period north to northeast swell will begin to
propagate through the northeast forecast waters on Wednesday, and
reach the southeast waters and northeastern Caribbean beginning
late Wednesday night and through Thursday. This swell will
significantly build seas over these waters Thursday night through
Friday morning before they begin to gradually subside through
Saturday night.



$$
AKR
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