[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
744 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...Central Atlantic Gale Warning...

A central Atlantic cold front extends from 31N44W to 26N56W to
31N74W, then transitions to stationary north of the area. Gale
force winds are expected N of 29N and east of the front to 40W,
with seas 12-16 ft. These conditions will last six hours. By
30/1800 UTC, a stationary front is expected to extends from
31N37W to 24N48W. A new cold front will extend from 31N45W to
27N51W to 29N57W. Gale-force winds are forecast N of 29N and east
of the stationary front, with seas ranging between 12-17 ft.
These conditions will continue through early Thu. See the latest
High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 42W and S
of 16N, moving west at about 10 kt. This wave is in the leading
edge of a dry/dusty Saharan airmass and is well depicted in
satellite imagery. Scattered showers are noted across the southern
portion of the wave mainly S of 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 52W and S
of 12N, moving west at about 10 kt. This wave is also well
depicted in satellite imagery. Scattered showers are from 05N-10N
between 46W-55W.

An eastern Carribbean tropical wave with axis along 64W S of 18N,
is moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in
satellite imagery and scatterometer data. Scattered moderate
convection prevails over the southern tip of the wave axis
affecting Venezuela.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 78W and S
of 21N, is moving west at 10-15 kt. An upper-level low is in the
wave's environment combining with it to enhance convection north
of 18N. The monsoon trough extends along 09N enhancing convection
with the wave also mainly south of 11N between 77W- 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast Africa near 10N14W to
05N27W. The ITCZ extends from 05N27W to 10N41W, then continues W
of a tropical wave from 10N44W to 09N50W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is along the monsoon trough from 04N-07N between 20W-
29W, and within 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 44W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf from 30N83W to
30N89W to 28N95W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the
vicinity of the front mainly north of 25N between 87W-93W. A
surface trough is over the western Gulf from 27N93W to 24N95W.

The front and trough will continue weakening while lingering in
the area. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed
night. It will quickly reach from near New Orleans to 27N93W to
Tampico early Thu, then from Panama City to 25N90W to inland
Minatitlan, Mexico by early Thu evening and from near Tampa to
25N89W and to the central Bay of Campeche by early on Fri. Gale
force northerly winds and building seas are expected west of the
front over most of the western Gulf waters Wed night through early
Fri. A secondary cold front will sweep across the area the
weekend increasing the northerly winds to fresh to strong speeds
over most locations. Seas will build over the SW Gulf and in he
far W-central Gulf by late Sat through Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

Scatterometer data depicts fresh easterly winds across the south
central Caribbean, while moderate trades prevail elsewhere.An
upper level low centered just southwest of Hispaniola is enhancing
convection across the island, the Windward Passage and Cuba.

Moderate trades will remain across the central and eastern
Caribbean through the weekend, while gentle trades remain over
the northwestern Caribbean. Large long-period northeast swell
propagating through the central Atlantic and into the Caribbean
Passages will subside tonight. A large set of large north-
northeast swell will propagate through the tropical north Atlantic
waters and northeast Caribbean passages Wed through Fri and begin
to slowly early on Sat through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for information about the Gale
Warning currently in effect and the tropical waves moving across
the basin.

A cold front extends from 31N44W to 26N57W to 31N73W, then becomes
stationary through 31N81W. Scattered showers are noted along the
fronts, with the strongest activity near the stationary front. To
the southeast, a stationary front extends from 31N31W to 21N61W.
Scattered showers prevail along the front between 33W-41W. Surface
ridging prevails across the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1021
mb high centered near 35N10W.

A surge of fresh to strong northeast to east winds will spread
across the eastern part of the area from late Wed afternoon
through Thu night. A weakening cold front will move over the far
northwest part of the area late Thu night into Fri, reaching from
31N77W to east-central Florida Fri night, then become stationary
through Sat night. Large long-period northeast swell propagating
through the waters S of 25N and east of the Bahamas will slowly
subside through early Tue evening. A large set of long-period
north to northeast swell will begin to propagate through the
northeast forecast waters on Wed, and reach the southeast waters
and northeastern Caribbean beginning late Wed night and through
Thu. This swell will significantly build seas over these waters
Thu night through Fri morning before they begin to gradually
subside through Sat night.

$$

ERA
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