[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo is centered near 46.8N 17.7W at
28/1500 UTC or 630 nm NE of Lajes Air Base in The Azores moving N
at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the center. See the last NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. High Seas Forecasts are
issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web
at: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2. High Seas Forecasts are also issued by the UK Met
Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at:
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast/.

...Central Atlantic Gale Warning...

A 1001 mb low is expected to drop south to 31N51W in the central
Atlantic on Tuesday 29/1200 UTC. The low will bring gales over
forecast waters within 180 nm SW semicircle and NW quadrant of
low. Seas of 13-16 ft are forecast. See the latest high seas
forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends from 21N32W to 10N35W to
01N36W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 04N-14N between 31W-38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W from 05N-18N, moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-12N between
57W-62W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W from 07N-21N, moving W at
15 kt. A large upper level low is centered near 16N71W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 15N-21N between 67W-72W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N15W to 06N25W. The ITCZ extends from 06N25W to 09N34W, then
continues W of a tropical wave from 09N38W to 07N50W to 10N57W.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described
above, isolated moderate convection is noted from 01N-08N between
07W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-10N between
47W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 28/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Daytona Beach
Florida to New Port Richey Florida, then continues as a warm
front to 26.5N90W to 24N95W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N93W. A
surface trough is also over the SE Gulf of Mexico from 25.5N87W to
23N90W to 20N90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is over the SE Gulf from 22N-27N between 85W-91W. Over the
northern Gulf, northwest of the warm front, deep-layered ridging
and dry air prevail along with gentle winds.

Gentle to moderate E to SE wind flow will prevail across the Gulf
through Tue as the remnants of an old front moves NW across the
basin and inland Wed. A strong upper level low pressure system
across the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting very active
thunderstorm activity across the central and SE Gulf and will
shift northward through late Tue. A strong cold front is expected
to move into the NW Gulf early Thu, then push SE to extend from
central Florida to the southern Bay of Campeche by Fri night. Gale
force winds are expected W of the front along the coasts of
Tamaulipas and Veracruz Thu through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 73W. See above.

An upper level low is centered S of Hispaniola near 16N71W.
Another upper level low is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula
near 18N90W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical
waves and upper lows, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is in the SW Caribbean from 09N-13N between 78W-85W in
association with the east Pacific monsoon trough. Relatively dry
air is found over the Lesser Antilles as well as the area from
73W-79W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades over the central
Caribbean, with strong trades near the coast of NW Venezuela and
off N Colombia, from 11N-14N between 70W-75W.

Fresh to locally strong trades are expected along the coasts of
Colombia and Venezuela through Tue as Atlc high pres settles just
SW of Bermuda. Otherwise, moderate trade winds will generally
prevail across most of the Caribbean through Fri night. Large long
period NE swell moving through the regional Atlantic and into the
Caribbean Passages will slowly subside through Tue night.
Reinforcing large N-NE swell will propagate through the tropical
north Atlantic waters and NE Caribbean passages Wed through Thu
and will reach the Venezuelan coast.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details about Post-Tropical
Cyclone Pablo, and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A cold front extends from 32N77W to Daytona Beach Florida.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm SE of the front. A
1020 mb high is near 29N66W. A cold front enters the area near
32N32W to 27N40W to 25N53W to 27N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 25N between 24W-33W. A 1020 mb high is near
32N13W.

High pressure over the Atlantic SW of Bermuda will maintain
moderate east to southeast winds across the region through Tue
before reinforcing high pres builds in from the N to freshen the
wind flow area wide. Large long period NE swell is peaking at
8-10 feet across the waters S of 25N and E of 72W today, and will
slowly subside through late Tue. Reinforcing long period N-NE
swell will begin to move into the NE waters Wed and reach the SE
waters and NE Caribbean Thu, with seas expected to peak at 10 to
11 ft Thu night through Fri morning.

$$
Formosa

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