[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251049
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a 1007 mb low pressure
system located over the west Gulf of Mexico near 24.3N 95.4W on
25/0900 UTC continue to show signs of organization. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 23N-31N between 87W-96W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 17N-23N between 91W-95W.
Further development is anticipated and it appears likely that a
short-lived tropical depression may form later today. The system
is forecast to merge with a cold front and become post-tropical
tonight over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, gale-force winds are expected behind the cold front
over the western Gulf of Mexico today and Saturday. For more
information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 25/0900 UTC, a strong cold
front has reached the Gulf of Mexico and extends from near
Houston Texas at 29N95W to NE Mexico near 25N97W. Gale force winds
are presently NW of the front. The front will push rapidly
southward into the SW Gulf later today. Northerly gale force winds
are expected to continue W of the front through tonight. A low
pressure area centered near 24N95W is producing widespread showers
and scattered thunderstorms. Some further development is possible
today as the low moves north ahead of the front, and it may
become a tropical depressison before merging with the cold front
overnight. Winds and seas will diminish rapidly across the western
Gulf on Saturday as the front weakens. See the latest High Seas
forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W/22W from 19N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is very well defined in
satellite imagery, total precipitable water imagery, and model
diagnostics. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-
16N between 18W-26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W from 14N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-13N
between 40W-47W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 20N51W to 13N53W to
04N53W, moving W at 5 kt. The wave is in a dry environment, and
no showers are seen.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 07N-21N,
moving W at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
12N-23N between 70W-78W. Convection is also being enhanced by
large scale upper-level cyclonic flow over the central Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 06N24W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to
07N36W to 08N43W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 08N45W
to the coast of N Brazil near 04N51W. Aside from the convection
mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, isolated moderate
convection is from 01N-10N between 27W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on the low
that is currently producing convection over the western Gulf of
Mexico. Also see the Special Features section regarding the
Gale Warning over the western Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front.

The far eastern Gulf is free of significant convection east of
83W. In the upper-levels, large scale upper-level anticyclonic
flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. Strong subsidence is over Florida
and the SE Gulf.

The western Gulf of Mexico low a high chance forming into a tropical
depression today. The low is expected to become post-tropical by
Saturday or merge with a cold front that is currently approaching
the NW Gulf of Mexico. By tonight, this front will reach from
Louisiana into the Bay of Campeche. To the west of the front,
northerly gale force winds are expected today into early Saturday
over the western Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low is centered over the central Caribbean near
18N79W. Aside from the convection between 70W-78W mentioned in
the Tropical Waves section above, isolated moderate convection is
over the western Caribbean and Central America W of 78W. Latest
ASCAT pass shows some fresh winds N of N Colombia, and moderate
winds elsewhere over the basin.

Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the Caribbean
through Tue night. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean will
reach Central America early next week. A second tropical wave
will reach the Lesser Antilles this evening and approach Puerto
Rico Sat night. Winds will be enhanced near the tropical waves as
they pass across the basin during the next few days. Large long
period NE swell will reach the Leeward Islands Sun, and continue
through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N68W to Vero
Beach Florida near 28N80W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of
the front. A strong cold front is over the central Atlantic from
31N30W to 24N40W to 23N49W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 240 nm S of the front E of 37W. Of note in the upper
levels, a large upper level low is over the E Atlantic near 37N35W
supporting the cold front.

The W Atlantic front will weaken and dissipate today. High
pressure north of the region will maintain moderate to fresh E to
SE winds over the forecast waters through Sun night. Large long
period NE swell will cause seas to build in SE waters E of 70W Sun
and Mon.

$$
Formosa

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