[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W from 02N-15N, moving
W at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 04N-11N between 30W-39W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 06N-19N,
moving W at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from
09N-15N between 43W-49W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W from 06N-19N, moving
W at 10-15 knots. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave
axis.

A tropical wave is along 90W from 04N-20N, moving W at 10-15
knots. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the W
Caribbean, Central America, Yucatan Peninsula, and Bay of
Campeche, from 10N-22N between 84W-96W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N15W to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 07N31W.
the ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N35W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N46W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section. scattered moderate convection is off the
coast of W Africa from 03N-10N between 07W-29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 23/0300 UTC, a 1021 mb high is centered over Louisiana near
31N93W producing fair weather. A cold front extends from Cocoa
Beach Florida to Naples Florida to the central Gulf of Mexico near
24N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Scattered moderate
convection is over the Bay of Campeche within 120 nm of the front
S of 23N.

A tropical wave is along 90W S of 20N enhancing convection over
the Yucatan Peninsula and the eastern Bay of Campeche.

The current cold front will stall Wed from near Naples FL to the
western Bay of Campeche. Scattered thunderstorms are on the
western portion of this boundary. In addition, the northern part
of a tropical wave will influence the Bay of Campeche into Thu,
potentially bringing additional thunderstorms to this region.
Strong NE winds behind the front will continue through Wed
afternoon. Winds will gradually veer southeast across the basin
Thu in advance of next cold front, which is expected to reach the
Texas coast Fri morning. Gale force NW to N winds are expected
over the western Gulf behind this front Fri through Sat afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 90W enhancing convection over the W
Caribbean. Another tropical wave is entering the E Caribbean along
60W producing showers. See above.

10-15 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds over the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated moderate convection is
over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico from 15N-20N between 65W-75W. This
convection is mostly due to an upper level low that is centered
over Hispaniola near 18N70W. Elsewhere, isolated moderate
convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 12N.

A weak Bermuda high pressure center will promote moderate to
fresh trade winds across most of the basin through Friday night.
High pressure N of the basin will strengthen, after a tropical
wave moves across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, causing
the trade winds to freshen across the central portions.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N80W to Cocoa Beach
Florida near 28N81W. Isolated moderate convection is from 28N-31N
between 78W-81W. A 1018 mb high is over the W Atlantic near
27N74W. A 1014 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near
29N52W. A stationary front extends S from the low to 21N58W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 23N- 31N between 49W-55W.
A 1024 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 37N21W.

The W Atlantic cold front will become stationary over South
Florida and north of the Bahamas by late Wed, gradually
dissipating along 27N on Fri. High pressure will build from the
Mid-Atlantic coast over the western Atlantic in the wake of this
front.

$$
Formosa

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