[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Fri Oct 18 22:31:39 CDT 2019

WTUS82 KTAE 190331
HLSTAE
FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-191145-

Tropical Storm Nestor Local Statement Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL162019
1131 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 /1031 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/

This product covers EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA

**TROPICAL STORM NESTOR IS NEARING NORTH FLORIDA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Calhoun, Central
      Walton, Coastal Bay, Gadsden, Holmes, Inland Bay, Inland Dixie,
      Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, Inland Jefferson, Inland Taylor,
      Inland Wakulla, Jackson, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, Madison,
      North Walton, South Walton, and Washington
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Gulf, Coastal
      Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, and Coastal Wakulla

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 140 miles southwest of PANAMA CITY or about 150 miles
      southwest of APALACHICOLA
    - 28.5N 87.0W
    - Storm Intensity 60 mph
    - Movement Northeast or 45 degrees at 23 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

OVERVIEW...

The center of Tropical Storm Nestor is about 140 mi southwest of
Panama City, FL with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and a central
pressure of 996 hPa. The storm could strengthen slightly as it moves
NE towards the tri-state area. Nevertheless, impacts are already being
felt across North Florida. Tropical storm force winds (39 mph or greater)
will continue to spread east and inland as the system
moves NE overnight. Strong winds will potentially produce
life-threatening inundation from storm surge along the FL Big Bend
coast and minor coastal flooding along the FL Panhandle coast. The
tornado threat is elevated across the Big Bend, where isolated tornadoes
are possible. Given the fast moving nature of the system,
the flooding rain threat is minimal, with only 2 to 4 inches of rain
expected with isolated 6 inch amounts.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding across
FLORIDA BIG BEND COASTLINE EAST OF INDIAN PASS. If realized, these
impacts include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Potential impacts from the main surge event are also now unfolding
across the FLORIDA BIG BEND COASTLINE EAST OF INDIAN PASS.

Elsewhere across EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG
BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, little to no
impact is anticipated.

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. If realized, these impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG
BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, little to no
impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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