[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 39.3N 62.6W at 13/0900
UTC, or 370 nm S of Halifax Nova Scotia, moving ENE at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered showers are
noted north of 39N-41N between 60W-62W. Gradual weakening is
expected, and Melissa is forecast to become a post-tropical
remnant low by tonight or early Monday. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A stationary front extends from the northern Gulf near 29N87W to
26N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Gales winds continue W
of the front along the western Gulf. Scatterometer data depicted
gale force northerly winds over the W Gulf waters within 90 nm of
the coast of Mexico between 19N-25N. Seas will range between 10-16
ft. The front will begin to weaken tonight into early Sun when it
is expected to dissipate with the remnants lifting back north as
a warm front through late Mon. Refer to the High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...Heavy rainfall event for Central America...

A 1008 mb surface low is centered over the SW Caribbean near
09N81W. The low is forecast to move WNW toward Central America
early next week, and some development is possible if the low moves
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the coasts of Honduras,
Guatemala, and Belize. Regardless of development, this system
could bring heavy rains to portions of Central America late this
weekend through early next week.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along the coast of Africa near 14W along 17N,
moving at 10 kt. Latest IR imagery shows a well organized area of
scattered moderate to strong convection with this wave. A low
pressure is also observed along the wave and the monsoon trough
near 13N15W. Scattered to strong convection is seen mostly in the
southern semicircle from 09N-14N between 13W-17W. This wave is
very well depicted in the wave model guidance and satellite
imagery.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 17N39W to
an embedded 1010 mb low near 10N40W to 01N40W, moving W at 10 kt.
This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery and model
guidance. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the vicinity
of the low from 06N-12N between 38W-44W and over the southern
portion of the wave mainly south of 08N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 52W,
from 19N southward, moving W at 10kt. This wave was relocated to
52W as current observations suggest a bit slower than anticipated.
Scattered moderate convection is mainly observed near the ITCZ
from 07N-11N between 51W-55W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W to 07N30W to 10N40W. The ITCZ extends west of the
tropical wave from 06N43W to 08N52W, then resumes west of the
wave from 08N54W to 06N58W. Besides the convection mentioned in
the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is S of the monsoon trough from 01N-05N between 29W-
31W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and north of the
ITCZ from 07N-09N between 54W-58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the forecast Gale
Warning currently in effect.

A cold front extends from the eastern Florida Panhandle to
29N87W, then transitions to a stationary front to 29N87W to 26N89W
to 24N94W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Scattered showers
and isolated tstorms are noted along and west of the front.
Surface trough is seen from 29N83W to 23N83W. No significant
convection is near the trough. Surface ridging prevails across
the remainder of the basin, with gentle to moderate easterly
winds.

The front will begin to weaken today and is expected to dissipate,
with the remnants lifting back north as a warm front through late
Mon. Otherwise, high pressure located northeast of the Gulf will
maintain relatively quiet conditions through Tue night. On Wed, a
much weaker cold front will approach the northern Gulf coastal
waters. On Thu, this front is expected to reach from west- central
Florida to 27N88W and stationary to inland the far southern Texas
coast. Mainly moderate north to northeast winds will follow
behind this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the sections above for the heavy rainfall event
currently occurring over Central America and the SW Caribbean.

TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture over the southern Caribbean
and northern South America. The Pacific monsoon trough extends
from Colombia westward across the SW Caribbean into a 1008 mb low
pressure near 09N81W to northern Costa Rica. Scattered moderate
to strong convection covers the southern Caribbean mainly south of
17N and west of 73W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades
across most of the basin, except the south-central area where
locally fresh winds are noted between 70W-82W.

Broad low pressure over the southwest Caribbean will slowly move
west-northwestward toward Central America during the next few
days. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds are likely mainly
over the northwest part of the Caribbean between the Yucatan
Peninsula and Honduras late Mon into Tue as a surface trough is
likely to form in that general area. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will continue over much of the western
Caribbean through late Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Tropical Storm
Melissa and tropical waves moving across the basin.

A western Atlantic stationary front extends from 31N60W to
24N65W to 23N76W, then a shear line extends from that point to
23N82W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the
front. To the east, a pair of 1012 mb surface lows are analyzed
near 22N62W and 26N57W. A surface trough is connecting these
lows. Scattered showers are noted from 21N-23N between 55W-62W.
Another cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N20W to 27N32W
to 30N43W with scattered showers. Surface ridging prevails across
the remainder of the basin.

A weakening stationary will gradually dissipate through Tue night.
Otherwise, weak high pressure north of the front will maintain
relatively quiet conditions through Tue. On Wed, moderate to
strong southwest winds will develop east of Florida ahead of the
next cold front. This front will move off the southeastern U.S.
coast on Wed, and reach from near 31N72W to inland Florida near
Cape Canaveral early Thu, and from near 31N68W to 28N71W and to
inland Florida near West Palm Beach by late Thu night. Seas east
of the Bahamas will subside to less than 8 ft this afternoon as
the large north swell produce by Tropical Storm Melissa well north
of the area decays.

$$
MMTorres
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