[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Melissa is centered near 38.2N 69.5W at
11/2100 UTC or 180 nm S of Nantucket Massachusetts moving SSE at
3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered
moderate convection prevails across the northern semicircle of
the system mainly north of 36N between 66W-72W. See the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34
KNHC for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front has entered the northwest Gulf of Mexico and will
continue moving southeast across the basin through the weekend.
The front will reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to
Veracruz by Sat afternoon. Behind the front, strong to gale force
northerly winds are expected along the Mexican coastal waters
beginning early Sat morning. Winds will diminish across the area
Sun morning. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under the
WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...Heavy rainfall event for Central America...

A 1007 mb surface low is centered over the SW Caribbean near
12N82W. As the low tracks westward toward Central America by early
next week it will likely interact with a Central American gyre.
Through the weekend, heavy rainfall is likely across Colombia,
Panama, Costa Rica and eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras.
By early next week, the heavy rain will continue in those
locations and spread northwestward to the rest of Central America
as well as southern Mexico. These rains could cause life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis from 20N31W to
02N31W, moving W at 10 kt. This wave is well depicted in satellite
imagery and model guidance. Scattered showers are noted along the
northern portion of the wave mainly north of 12N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 50W from 09N-
21N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the
northern portion of the wave from 18N-25N between 48W-54W. This
convection is enhanced by an upper level low centered to the northwest
of the wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 87W from 03N-
21N, moving W at 10 kt. This wave is embedded in an area of deep
layer moisture. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of
the wave's axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Africa near
12N16W to 08N35W. The ITCZ extends from 08N35W to 08N48W. Besides
the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, isolated
moderate convection above is S of the monsoon trough from 02N-
08N between 07W-21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

A cold front has entered the northwest Gulf of Mexico, extending
from 30N94W to 27N97W. Scattered showers are noted along the
front. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are N of the front.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.

The front will become stationary on Sun from the FL Panhandle to
the Bay of Campeche. Strong to minimal gale force northerly winds
are expected behind the front along the Tamaulipas Coast tonight,
then over the waters near Veracruz Sat afternoon. Winds will
diminish across the entire area Sun as high pressure north of the
area slides eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical wave over
the west Caribbean and the heavy rainfall event currently
occurringover Central America and the SW Caribbean.

TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture over the southern Caribbean
and northern South America. Scattered moderate convection covers
the Caribbean mainly south of 18N.

The broad area of low pressure over the SW Caribbean is forecast
to move westward toward Central America early next week, and some
development is possible if the low remains over water while moving
near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize. Fresh to
strong winds are expected over the SW and NW Caribbean late in the
weekend into early next week associated with this system.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Sub-Tropical Storm
Melissa and tropical waves moving across the basin.

A cold front is over the W-central Atlantic from 31N63W to 26N69W
to 23N78W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the front
mainly north of 28N. Two 1010 mb surface lows are NE of the
Caribbean near 21N63W and 23N58W. A surface trough connects these
lows. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.

The cold front will push slowly SE during the next few days and
dissipate W of 70W by Sun. High pressure behind the front will
induce moderate to locally fresh northerly winds east of the
Bahamas. Sub-T.S. Melissa will continue to generate large N swell
over a large portion of the western Atlantic through Sun.

$$

ERA
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