[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W, from 20N
southward, moving W 5 to 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate from 02N to 23N between Africa and 20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21N40W 15N38W 05N38W,
from 20N southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 18N to 22N between
36W and 41W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W, from 21N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 13N to 19N between
73W and 80W. Numerous strong in coastal Colombia from 10N to 13N
between 72W and 75W in Venezuela and Colombia.

A second Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong within 240 nm on either
side of the tropical wave, from 12N to 18N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W, to 10N26W
to 12N38W, and 10N41W. The ITCZ continues along 10N between 41W
and 60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong,
elsewhere, within 360 nm on either side of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure center that
is near 34N70W, through 30N73W, to 28N76W. A cold front passes
through 32N77W, to the eastern part of the Florida coast near
28N80W, becoming stationary along the Florida west coast near
27N. The front is stationary, and it continues to 25N89W in the
central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: Isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong in the Gulf of Mexico to
the east of the line that runs from 30N84W to 21N90W, and in the
Atlantic Ocean to the west of the line that runs from 32N61W to
27N70W to 23N80W at the coast of Cuba.

A SW Gulf of Mexico surface trough extends from the coast of
Mexico near 23N97W, to the northern part of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is from 22N southward, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate to fresh northeast winds can be expected northwest of
the frontal boundary E of 90W through Thursday. High pressure
remains in the southeastern U.S.A. A strong cold front will move
into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon. The front will
reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz,
Mexico on Saturday afternoon, where it will become stationary.
Strong to near gale force northerly winds can be expected,
especially on Saturday and Saturday night, behind this front.
Near gale force winds may persist offshore Veracruz into Sunday,
before the wind speeds diminish across the entire area on Sunday
night. High pressure to the north of the area is forecast to
slide eastward through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model analysis for 250 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow,
from an inverted trough, covers the Caribbean Sea between the
Windward Passage and 84W. The GFS model also shows that upper
level anticyclonic wind flow, with an upper level ridge, extends
from NE coastal sections of Venezuela into the south central
Caribbean Sea.

A 77W tropical wave will reach the western Caribbean Sea
tonight, then slow down and reach Central America on Thursday
night. Fresh to strong trade winds, and scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms, can be expected across the Central
Caribbean Sea through Thursday, behind the tropical wave. Long
period north to northeast swell, that is propagating through the
central Atlantic Ocean, will decay gradually across the area
Atlantic Ocean waters and Caribbean Sea passages through Friday
night. It is possible that broad low pressure may develop in the
SW Caribbean Sea on Sunday, and persist into early next.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure center that
is near 34N70W, through 30N73W, to 28N76W. A cold front passes
through 32N77W, to the eastern part of the Florida coast near
28N80W, becoming stationary along the Florida west coast near
27N. The front is stationary, and it continues to 25N89W in the
central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: Isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong in the Gulf of Mexico to
the east of the line that runs from 30N84W to 21N90W, and in the
Atlantic Ocean to the west of the line that runs from 32N61W to
27N70W to 23N80W at the coast of Cuba.

A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 31N51W. An occluded front
curves away from the low pressure center, to the north and
northeast. A stationary front passes through 32N42W to 28N43W
and 24N47W. A cold front continues from 24N47W to 21N52W and
23N62W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
30N50W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 12N northward between 40W and 60W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate within 120 nm on either side of the frontal boundaries,
and elsewhere in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow.

The current Atlantic Ocean frontal boundary will move slowly
southeastward tonight. It will move a little faster on Thursday,
and reach from 30N65W to 27N69W to 27N80W on Thursday evening.
The northern part of the front will continue eastward as a cold
front across the northeast section of the area from Friday
through Saturday night. The rest of the front will become
stationary from 27N65W to the central Bahamas and to along the
northern coast of Cuba through Sunday. The front will begin to
dissipate late on Sunday through early next week. High pressure
will build from the southeastern U.S.A., behind the front, with
the resultant gradient leading to fresh northeast winds to the
northwest of the front. Low pressure will deepen off the Mid-
Atlantic coast through Friday, and generate large northwest to
north swell in much of the western Atlantic Ocean. This swell
will subside slowly through Monday night.

$$
mt
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