[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090229 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1029 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SECOND SPECIAL FEATURE...

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A non-tropical 1011 mb low pressure center is in the Atlantic
Ocean, near 32N47W, about 910 nm to the east of Bermuda. Winds
to gale-force, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 16 feet,
are within 360 nm of the center in the NW semicircle. An
occluded front curves away from the low center, reaching the
triple point near 33N41W. The cold front extends from 33N41W to
30N42W, 23N50W, and 25N58W. A dissipating stationary front
continues from 25N58W to 27N65W and 30N69W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate within 60 nm on either side of the cold front
to 23N48W, and within 60 nm on either side of 23N48W 21N53W
23N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 180 nm to
the north of the dissipating stationary front from 66W westward.
The chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48
hours is medium. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed
under the WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

A small area of low pressure is located about 260 nm south of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, near 31N75W as of 09/0000 UTC.
While the system is likely producing winds to near gale force,
the associated thunderstorm activity has recently decreased.
Although upper-level winds are not particularly favorable for
additional development, this system still has a medium chance of
becoming a tropical depression or storm on Wednesday. By late
Wednesday, the system is forecast to merge with the low off the
east coast of the United States.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 15W/16W, from 20N southward, moving W 5
to 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong, about
200 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 07N to 11N.
Isolated moderate elsewhere, from 13N southward, between 09W and
30W. It is possible that some of the precipitation may be more
related to the monsoon trough than to the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 15N to 18N between 33W and 37W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 22N
southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong within 120 nm to the west of the wave, from 10N
to 12N, in NW Venezuela, between the tropical wave and Lake
Maracaibo. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within
240 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 13N to 20N.

A second Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate within 120 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from
12N to 20N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Mauritania near 17N16W, to
15N20W 11N26W 10N33W 11N36W, and 09N39W. The ITCZ continues from
09N39W, to 08N43W and 09N61W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong within 300 nm to the north of the ITCZ from
46W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

One surface trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near
27N80W, into the SE Gulf of Mexico, and to the northern sections
of the Yucatan Peninsula. A second surface trough, from NW-to-
SE, extends from 23N97W to 18N93W at the coast of Mexico. A cold
front cuts across the Gulf of Mexico, through NE Florida, to
27N90W, beyond the Mexico Gulf coast near 24N97W. Precipitation:
Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong in
the Straits of Florida. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 27N
southward.

The current SE Gulf of Mexico surface trough will move slowly NW
through tonight. The current Gulf of Mexico cold front will move
slowly southward through early Wednesday, and become stationary
along 26N/27N through Thursday. Moderate to fresh northeast
winds behind the front will persist into Wednesday before
diminishing. A second cold front will move into the NW Gulf on
Friday night, and reach from near the mouth of the Mississippi
River to Veracruz, Mexico on Saturday afternoon, and become
stationary Saturday night. The front will be followed by strong
to near gale force northerly winds Saturday and Saturday night,
and by strong northwest winds along the coast of Mexico near
Veracruz early on Sun, diminishing to mainly moderate to fresh
winds on Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea between
66W and 78W. A tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 22N
southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong within 120 nm to the west of the wave, from 10N
to 12N, in NW Venezuela, between the tropical wave and Lake
Maracaibo. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within
240 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 13N to 20N.

The southernmost part of a surface trough is in the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. A second tropical wave is along 79W/80W,
from 20N southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 12N northward from 80W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N between northern Colombia,
and beyond NW Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong from 12N southward from 75W westward. Scattered
to numerous strong in the coastal plains/coastal waters of
Colombia from 10N to 12N between 73W and 76W.

A tropical wave along 69W will move through the basin, and reach
the W Caribbean Sea on Thursday. Fresh to strong tradewinds, and
very active weather, will follow behind the wave, from today
through Wednesday. Large N-NE swell in the central Atlantic
Ocean, will continue to impact the area waters, and move through
the Caribbean Sea passages through Wednesday, then gradually
subside during the latter half of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough passes through 32N75W to a 1011 mb low pressure
center, that is near 30N77W. The surface trough continues to the
coast of Florida, near and beyond 27N80W. The trough continues
into the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong to the west of the line
that passes through 32N70W to 22N70W at the coast of Cuba. For
more information on this low, see the 2nd paragraph of the
Special Features section above.

The wind speeds and the sea heights will begin to diminish to
the north of the current central Atlantic Ocean cold front/
dissipating stationary front, tonight, as the pressure gradient
there slackens. The current western Atlantic Ocean low pressure
center and surface trough, off the coast of Florida, will move
northeastward through Wed night. A cold front from near 31N80W
to inland northeastern Florida will approach the NW Bahamas on
Wed, then reach the central Bahamas Thu and Thu night and become
stationary from near 28N65W to central Bahamas and to northern
Cuba late Fri through Sun night as high pressure slides eastward
just to the north of the area.

$$

mt/Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net