[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
151 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A non-tropical 1010 mb low pressure system located over the
central Atlantic, near 32N45W, between Bermuda and the Azores is
producing winds to gale force. The occluded front extends from
the low to a triple point near 33N42W. A cold front extends from
the triple point to 29N42W to 22N49W to 24N58W. A weakening
stationary front extends eastward to 34N35W. There are no gales
occurring south of 31N in the S semicircle. However, gales to 35
kt are occurring in portions of the northern semicircle north of
31N. Scattered moderate convection is north of 30N and extends 300
nm NE of the low pressure, from 29N-37N between 34W-48W. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for the low to
acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics, and this
system could become a tropical or subtropical storm later today or
early Wednesday while it moves slowly westward. As the low moves
W during the next 48 hours, expect any gales to be confined to
areas north of 31N in the northern semicircle. Upper-level winds
are expected to become unfavorable for further development by Wed
evening. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in
the next 48 hours. Please see the High Seas Forecast product
under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 15W from 19N southward
along the coast of Africa, moving W at 5-10 kt. This position was
shifted eastward by 2 degrees from the previous map because new
data and satellite imagery indicate the tropical wave is still
inland over West Africa. Model diagnostics indicate the wave's
location well. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
seen from 03N-13N between 08W-21W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 35W from
20N southward, moving W around 10 kt. TPW imagery and model
guidance depict this wave well. Scattered showers are noted from
14N-18N between 32W-36W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 66W from
21N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
prevails from 12N-18N between 64W-75W, including south of the Mona
Passage.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 78W from
20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is seen where the wave meets the East Pacific
monsoon trough from 04N-13N between 76W-82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Mauritania near 17N16W to 11N29W
to 08N39W. The ITCZ extends from 08N39W to 09N60W. Aside from the
convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered
moderate convection is over the eastern Atlantic from 04N-12N
between 18W-20W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong
convection is along and within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 51W-
61W, including the Windward Islands.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An elongated surface trough extends from Cancun Mexico to Ft.
Myers Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong tstorms are
seen near the FL Keys, western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel.
A separate surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 18N93W to
22N97W. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the Bay of
Campeche from 18N-23N between 91W-97W. A cold front extends
across the Gulf of Mexico from the Panhandle of Florida near
28N89W to south of the Rio Grande River near 25N97W. It continues
inland as a stationary front.

A trough extending from near Ft Meyers, Florida SW to the NE tip
of the Yucatan will lift slowly NW through tonight. A cold front
extending from the Florida Panhandle to the upper Mexican coast
will sink slowly S through early Wed and stall along 26N-27N
through Thu. Moderate to fresh winds behind the front will persist
into Wed before diminishing. Another cold front will move into
the NW Gulf Fri night and reach from near the mouth of the
Mississippi River to Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon, accompanied
by strong to near gale force winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See section above for details on two tropical waves over the
Caribbean Sea.

An elongated surface trough extends from Cancun Mexico to Ft.
Myers Florida. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is seen from the Gulf of Honduras to the Yucatan Channel.
Scattered moderate convection is from eastern and central
Caribbean near 12N-17N between 68W-71W. The ASCAT pass from late
Monday evening shows fresh trades across the eastern and central
Caribbean.

A tropical wave along 68W will move through the basin and reach
the W Caribbean Thu. Fresh to strong tradewinds and very active
weather will follow behind the wave today through Wed. Large N-NE
swell across the regional Atlc will continue to impact the area
waters and move through the Caribbean passages through Wed, then
gradually subside during the latter half of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
system that has a medium chance of becoming a tropical or
subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the
Tropical Waves section above for details on two tropical waves
currently over the tropical Atlantic.

A 1011 mb surface low is near 32N77W. A surface trough extends
from that low across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong
upper-level diffluence and divergence east of Florida is enhancing
scattered moderate convection from 26N-79N between 73W-79W. The
low near 28N80W may strengthen slightly today and produce fresh to
locally strong winds before it merges into the low near 32N75W by
Wed. A non-tropical 1010 mb low pressure system located over the
central Atlantic, near 32N45W, between Bermuda and the Azores is
producing winds to gale force. The occluded front extends from the
low to a triple point near 33N42W. A cold front extends from the
triple point to 29N42W to 22N49W to 24N58W. A weakening stationary
front extends from 24N58W to 30N68W. Scattered showers and tstorms
are seen 100 to 150 nm South of the boundary.

North of the front, strong SE winds and high seas will prevail
today. Winds and seas will begin to diminish there tonight as the
pressure gradient relaxes. A surface trough over the NW Bahamas
and S Florida extends SW into the SE Gulf of Mexico this morning.
This trough will lift northeast and may organize into low pressure
north of the Bahamas tonight or Tue, before moving NE and away
from the area. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
with this low until it merges with a cold front that will move
off the SE U.S. coast tonight and approach the NW Bahamas on Wed.
The front will then stall and weaken over the Bahamas for the
latter half of the week.

$$

MMTorres
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