[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the central Atlantic...

A 1012 mb surface low is centered near 31N45W. A stationary front
extends from the low to 27N50W to a 1018 mb low near 26N56W.
Latest scatterometer data depicts strong to gale force winds
within 90 nm in the west semicircle of the low. Seas in this area
are ranging between 13-19 ft. These conditions will diminish by
08/0600 UTC. Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecast product, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02
KNHC/HSTAT2.

A non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic
Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores is producing gale-force winds
to the north of its center. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be generally conducive for the low to acquire some subtropical
or tropical characteristics during the next day or two, and this
system could become a tropical or subtropical storm on Tuesday or
Wednesday while it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are
expected to become unfavorable for further development by Wed night.
There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48
hours. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecast product, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSTAT2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 15W from 17N southward
along the coast of Africa, moving W around 10 kt. Model guidance
indicate the wave's location well near this area. Scattered
moderate convection extends 180 nm on either side of the wave
axis.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 33W from
16N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. TPW imagery and wave
model guidance depict this wave very well. Scattered showers are
noted along the northern portion of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 62W from
20N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. The wave is noted in
satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate
convection prevails within 250 nm west of the wave axis mainly
north of 13N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 19N74W to
07N75W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along
the northern portion of the wave affecting Hispaniola and
adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 13N17W to 09N24W to 11N32W to 08N39W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N39W to 11N58W. Besides the convection mentioned above in
the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is over
the Atlantic from 03N-12N between 17W-28W and along the ITCZ
between 45W-58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An elongated surface trough extends across the southern portion of
the basin and the far west Caribbean from 25N80W to 22N86W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails along and south this
trough. This surface feature is supported at upper levels by a
diffluent flow. To the southwest, a surface trough extends from 22N97W
to 19N94W with scattered moderate convection. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh winds across the Bay of Campeche west of
the trough, while moderate winds prevail across the remainder of
the basin.

The surface trough over the SW Gulf will dissipate tonight.
The other trough will continue to lift northward across the SE
Gulf tonight into Tue. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf
tonight, then extend from near the Florida Big Bend region to the
Bay of Campeche on Tue. NE winds will strengthen to moderate to
fresh speeds across the western Gulf behind the front, with strong
NW winds expected offshore of Veracruz tonight and Tue. The front
will weaken Wed through Thu. The next cold front will move into
the NW Gulf by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean while another wave
is entering the eastern portion of the basin. See the section
above for details.

A surface trough extends over the NW Caribbean from western Cuba
near 22N84W to near 17N88W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted in this area, mainly west of 80W. ASCAT pass shows fresh
trades south of 12N and W of 68W, fresh to strong southerly flow
south of the trough in the NW Caribbean from 18N-21N between 82W-
86W, and gentle to moderate winds in the SW Caribbean.

The tropical wave over the central Caribbean near will enter the
western Caribbean tonight, then reach Central America Wed. The
other tropical wave will move into the central Caribbean by Wed.
Winds over the S central Caribbean will be locally strong through
mid-week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail across
much of the region for the next several days. Large N to NE swell
will augment seas east of the Lesser Antilles today through Tue.
Then, seas will subside Wed through Fri as the swell decay.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for information about the Gale Warning
currently in effect and the area with tropical development
potential.

Two tropical waves are in the tropical Atlantic. See the section
above for details.

Upper level diffluence and a surface trough along 26N are
enhancing convection across the west Atlantic, where scattered to
numerous showers and tstorms are noted west of 75W. To the east, a
frontal boundary is analyzed as a stationary front from a 1012 mb
low near 31N44W to a 1018 mb low near 26N56W to 28N68W. The front
weakens and transitions into a warm front from that point to
30N74W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 26N-31N
between 62W- 72W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of
the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 36N21W.

The frontal system will lift northward and dissipate tonight. NE
swell will continue impacting the remaining waters east of the
Bahamas into Tue, then gradually decay through mid week.
Elsewhere, a surface trough extending from the Florida Keys to
near Abaco Island will slowly lift N tonight and Tue. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas are expected east of the trough
over the northern waters. Another cold front will move off the SE
U.S. coast Tue, approach the NW Bahamas Wed through Thu, then
dissipate over the central Bahamas Fri.

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net