[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
739 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic waters from 31N48W
to 28N77W. Gale force winds are occurring in the vicinity of the
front north of 30N between 51W-54W and from 28N-30N between 67W-70W.
Seas in these areas are ranging between 12-16 ft. These conditions
will continue through early Mon, when the cold front is expected
to dissipate. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 29W FROM
04n-15N, moving W at 10 kt. TPW imagery and model guidance depict
this wave very well. Scattered showers are noted along and east of
the wave axis between 20W-30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 55W from
03N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is noted in satellite
imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is south
of 13N between 52W-58W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 70W from
08N-22N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is noted in satellite
imagery and model guidance. Scattered showers are noted along
the northern portion of the wave affecting Hispaniola and adjacent
waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 10N29W to 07N36W. The ITCZ continues from 07N36W
to 09N53W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N57W to
08N62W. Besides the convection mentioned in the Tropical Wave
section above, scattered moderate convection is south of the
monsoon trough along the coast of W Africa from 08N-12N and east
of 16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the W Gulf of Mexico from 25N92W to
18N93W with scattered showers. In the upper levels, a sharp upper
level trough is over the W Gulf along 92W. Upper level diffluence
east of the trough is producing scattered moderate convection
over the eastern Gulf east of 90W.

A weak low pressure trough will linger near the Yucatan Peninsula
through Mon. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf by late Mon,
then extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz on Tue. NE
winds will strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds across the
western Gulf behind the front, with strong NW winds expected
offshore of Veracruz early in the week. The front will stall and
weaken over the central Gulf Wed through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See the section
above for details.

A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from 21N79W to 21N84W
to 19N87W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted north of 17N and west of 79W. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate trades across the basin.

The tropical wave will continue moving west and cross the western
Caribbean through Tue. The next tropical wave will reach the
Lesser Antilles by Mon. Expect fresh to locally strong winds as
this wave passes over the eastern and central Caribbean through
the middle of this week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail
across much of the region for the next several days. Northerly
swell generated by a cold front north of the area will cause seas
to build east of the Lesser Antilles Mon through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two Gale Warnings are in effect for the Atlantic waters. Refer to
the section above for details.

Two tropical waves are in the tropical Atlantic. See the section
above for details.

A cold front is over the western and central Atlantic from 31N48W
to 28N77W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 27N56W to 26N60W.
Another trough is analyzed in the west Atlantic from 22N78W to
26N71W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the west
Atlantic due to these features mainly west of 50W. To the east,
surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the area anchored
by a 1023 mb high centered near 36N19W.

Expect strong to near gale force NE to E winds and very
rough seas north of the front through Mon, and gale conditions
possible N of 28N and E of 70W through tonight. The cold front
will weaken and stall tonight, then lift northward and dissipate
Mon into Tue. Northerly swell generated by the winds N of the
front will propagate S across the remaining waters east of the
Bahamas through Mon night, then gradually decay Tue through Thu.
Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast late Tue and
approach the NW Bahamas Wed and Thu.

$$

ERA
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