[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Oct 04 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16W/17W, from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: numerous
strong, that was in parts of Senegal and The Gambia during the
last few hours, has been weakening and dissipating recently.
Isolated moderate elsewhere from 03N to 16N between Africa and
20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 16N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Any nearby precipitation is
from 10N southward, more directly related to the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/60W, from 19N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 60 nm on either
side of the tropical wave from 13N to 17N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 14N17W, to 07N24W and 07N29W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N29W to 06N36W 08N45W 08N50W and 10N56W. Precipitation:
Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong within
120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 150
nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in Texas, between
San Antonio and Houston. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
Texas, Mexico, and the Gulf of Mexico from 87W westward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 90W westward.

The northern part of a surface trough is in the Yucatan Channel.
This trough has been the subject of the forecasts for the last
few days, while it was first in the NW Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 25N southward from 90W
eastward. Significant development of this system is not
expected. It is forecast to move slowly westward across the
northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, and over the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico, during the next few days.

Weak high pressure will remain to the northeast of the region
through early next week. A weak cold front will approach the far
northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and become stationary through
the weekend. It is possible that a stronger cold front may move
into the northern and western Gulf of Mexico early next week. A
NW Caribbean Sea broad area of low pressure will move westward,
across the Yucatan Peninsula, and into the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico, during the next few days. Scattered rainshowers and
thunderstorms are expected with this feature.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center is
near 27N73W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW
Bahamas. A surface trough passes through the Yucatan Channel, to
the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, curving along the
eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, through Belize, into
eastern sections of Guatemala. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong within 100 nm to the south of SE Cuba between
76W, between Jamaica and SE Cuba, and 82W.

The monsoon trough is along 11N73W at the border of Colombia and
Venezuela, to 10N80W, beyond the east central coast of Nicaragua.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 09N to 11N
between 73W and 77W.

The current NW Caribbean Sea broad area of low pressure will
move westward to the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula
tonight and Friday. Upper level divergence will continue to
support heavy showers and tstms over Cuba and adjacent waters
through the weekend. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser
Antilles tonight, the eastern Caribbean Fri through Sat evening
and across the central Caribbean Sun through early next week.
Moderate to fresh winds will dominate the central and eastern
Caribbean waters through the entire period. Otherwise, northerly
swell associated with a cold front N of the area will support 8
ft seas east of the Lesser Antilles Mon and Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of KAREN are a 1014 mb low pressure center that is
near 29N65W. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough extends from
32N63W, to the low center to 28N65W. A second surface trough is
along 74W/75W, from 30N to the Bahamas. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 20N to 30N from 48W westward.

A trough northeast of the Bahamas will weaken through Sat. A
cold front will move into the northern waters on Sat, with
strong to near gale force northeast to east winds affecting the
waters N of the Bahamas through Mon evening. However, building
seas associated with the front will affect the waters east of
the Bahamas through Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will accompany the front. The front will stall and weaken Sun
night, then lift northward as a warm front Mon.

$$
mt
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