[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Oct 02 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 02/0300 UTC, is near 39.1N
32.7W. Lorenzo is about 75 nm/135 km to the WSW of Flores
Island, in the western Azores. Lorenzo is moving NE, or 45
degrees, 35 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 85 knots with gusts to
105 knots. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong within
150 nm to 330 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Lorenzo is a
category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
A hurricane warning and a tropical storm warning have been
announced for different parts of the Azores. A warning typically
is issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical storm-force winds or hurricane-force winds. These are
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LORENZO are available via
the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LORENZO are available via the WMO
header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. Please
go to the website, also, www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W, from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong within 135 nm on either side of the
monsoon trough between 24W and 29W, and within 75 nm on either
side of the monsoon trough between 29W and 36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W, from 14N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong within 240 nm to the north of the
ITCZ between 46W and 58W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W, from 16N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: Scattered to
numerous strong within 120 nm to the south of Cuba between 79W
and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W, to 05N29W. The ITCZ continues from 05N29W to
04N35W 07N44W 09N48W, and curving to coastal NE Guyana.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong within 240
nm to the north of the ITCZ between 46W and 58W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong within 450 nm to the SE of the
monsoon trough from 20W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Satellite imagery and GFS model data show middle level to upper
level NE wind flow, that is part of larger-scale anticyclonic
wind flow, in the Gulf of Mexico. A NE-to-SW oriented surface
ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible from
28N southward.

The pressure gradient, between high pressure in the SE U.S.A.
and weak low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea, will support
fresh to strong winds, briefly, in the SE Gulf of Mexico
overnight, followed by moderate to fresh winds through Thursday.
The low pressure will move NW slowly, toward the Yucatan
Peninsula, through Thursday; then pass near the Yucatan
Peninsula on Thursday night, and move into the Bay of Campeche
on Friday. Easterly winds will become fresh in the NE Gulf of
Mexico, from late Saturday into Sunday, as a cold front moves
into the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1006 mb low pressure center is about 220 nm to the W of
Jamaica. Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong within 120
nm to the south of Cuba between 79W and 82W. Any development of
this system, into a tropical cyclone, is expected to be slow to
occur. This feature is forecast to move WNW, near the Yucatan
Peninsula in a couple of days, and into the southern Gulf of
Mexico by Friday.

Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
14N to 20N between 70W and eastern Jamaica and SE Cuba. This
precipitation is to the south of the area of the 25N65W-to-
Windward Passage Atlantic Ocean surface trough.

Gentle to moderate trade winds in the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea will increase to moderate to fresh on Wednesday
night, and prevail through the weekend. A western Caribbean Sea
tropical wave will move across Central America on Wednesday, and
into the eastern Pacific Ocean on Thursday. The next tropical
wave will reach the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and cross the
eastern Caribbean Sea this weekend. A broad area of low pressure
in the western Caribbean Sea will move NW slowly, toward the
Gulf of Mexico through Thursday night, accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of KAREN are a 1011 mb low pressure center that is
near 29N67W. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is along 31N65W,
through the 1011 mb low pressure center, to 25N69W. An upper
level trough extends from 32N64W to 23N70W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong from 21N to 32N between 54W and 67W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from Cuba and
Hispaniola to 25N between 70W and 80W.

A second surface trough is along 25N65W, into the Windward
Passage. Development of this system, into a tropical cyclone, is
not anticipated anymore. It will move N or NE, 5 to 10 mph,
remaining well to the south of Bermuda.

Easterly swell, generated by distant Hurricane Lorenzo, will
affect sections of the SW N Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday.
Weak low pressure, along a surface trough SW of Bermuda, will
drift NE through Friday. The pressure gradient between this low
pressure center, and high pressure north of the area, will
support moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds with 8 foot sea
heights, overnight. A cold front will move southward into the
northern waters this weekend. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are
expected behind the front. Expect sea heights to build to
greater than 8 feet in the northern waters.

$$
mt
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