[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
201 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lorenzo, at 01/1500 UTC, is near 35.2N 37.9W. Lorenzo
is moving to the NE at 21 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 962 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 85
knots with gusts to 105 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
is present in the NE quad out to 350 nm from the center and
102 nm in the SW quad. The hurricane should move in the same
general direction but at a faster forward speed during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is
expected to pass near the western Azores early Wednesday. Only
slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. Please read
the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W, from 17N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers are in the vicinity
of the wave axis from 03N-07N between 20W-25W and from 14N-18N
between 21W-25W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W, from 16N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. No significant convection is seen along
the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W, from 15N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. This wave is moving through the area of
the monsoon trough in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The wave
also is approaching the area of a 1007 mb low pressure center,
that is just to the west of Jamaica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N15W to 05N30W. The ITCZ continues from 05N30W to 09N42W,
then resumes to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is seen in
the vicinity along the ITCZ from 07N-09N between 38W-43W and from
06N-10N between 48W-56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Satellite imagery shows mid to upper level anticyclonic wind flow
in the Gulf of Mexico. A NE-to-SW oriented surface ridge spans
the Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh
NE winds in the eastern Gulf.

A ridge along the northern Gulf coast will maintain moderate to
fresh easterly winds across the basin through Thu. A weak low
pressure area over the western Caribbean will move across the
Yucatan Peninsula Thu evening and into the Bay of Campeche on Fri.
Moderate to fresh winds across the gulf will briefly increase to
strong over the SE basin Tue night as the pressure gradient
tighten between the approaching low and weak high pressure N of
the area. Winds will become light to moderate Fri and light to
gentle on Sat as the low moves towards the NW gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An area of scattered showers and tstorms is present south of
Hispaniola from 15N to 18N between 68W-73W. A 1005 mb low
pressure center is about 145 nm to the WNW of Jamaica. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is present from 16N-20N between 77W-
80W. Scattered moderate convection is seen 12N-20N west of 80W
near the coast of Nicaragua, Honduras, the Gulf of Honduras and
the Yucatan Channel. ASCAT data shows moderate winds in the
eastern Caribbean with light winds near the U.S. Virgin Islands
the Greater Antilles and in the SW Caribbean Sea south of the 1005
mb low. The Pacific monsoon trough is along 10N75W to 09N82W.
Scattered showers and tstorms are seen in the vicinity of the
monsoon trough.

Gentle to moderate trade winds across the eastern and central
Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh Wed night and prevail
through Sat. A tropical wave over the SW Caribbean will move
across Central America Wed and into the east Pacific on Thu. The
next tropical wave will enter the eastern basin on Fri. Otherwise,
a broad area of low pressure developing over the western
Caribbean will move NW toward the Gulf of Mexico through Thu
night. Heavy showers and isolated tstms are expected to continue
in the NW Caribbean as this low progresses towards the Yucatan
Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough extends from 30N60W to a 1011 mb low pressure center
near 30N64W and continues SW to 25N69W. Scattered moderate
showers and tstorms are near the trough from 24N-31N between 56W-
69W. Ridge extends in the northeast Atlantic.

Swell generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will affect portions of
the SW N Atlantic through Wed. A low pressure south of Bermuda
with associated surface trough extending SW towards the central
Bahamas will drift NE through Fri. The pressure gradient between
the low and high pressure N of the area will support northeast to
east trades N of 25N through Wed night.

$$
Torres
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