[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1231 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast into the
western Atlantic waters and will bring strong to gale force winds
on either side of the front beginning on 02/0000 UTC and will
continue through 03/1800 UTC. These winds are expected N of 30N
between 77W-80W. Seas will range from 12-16 ft in that area.
Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the
AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N11W to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along and north of the
ITCZ between 22W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep ridging prevails over the Gulf with the upper level ridge
centered over the Yucatan Passage. The latest scatterometer data
and surface observations depict moderate to fresh southerly winds
across the western Gulf with light to gentle easterly winds in
the eastern basin.

High pressure sliding east of the Gulf is supporting moderate to
fresh winds over the northwest Gulf, off the Yucatan Peninsula and
in the Straits of Florida. A cold front will move off Texas coast
overnight. The front will reach from near Tampa, Florida to
Tampico, Mexico by Sunday night, followed by fresh to strong NW
winds over the northeast Gulf. The front will sweep south of the
southeast Gulf on Monday. High pressure will build over the
central Gulf behind the front through mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Light showers are noted across the Lesser Antilles. Otherwise,
deep ridging extends across most of the basin which is inhibiting
deep convection. The latest scatterometer data and surface
observations depict moderate to fresh trades in the central and NW
Caribbean, while gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere.

High pressure building north of the area allow moderate to
occasionally fresh northeasterly winds across most of the
Caribbean tonight, as large northerly swell reaches the Atlantic
passages in the northeast Caribbean. Winds will veer more easterly
and diminish thereafter as the high pressure shifts eastward,
ahead of another cold front expected to move into the Yucatan
Channel Tue morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information about the
developing gale expected in the western Atlantic.

A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N44W to
19N64W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the front
mainly north of 28N. Surface ridging is building in the wake of
the front, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered 29N75W. To the
south, a surface trough is analyzed from 15N48W to 10N54W with
scattered moderate convection along and east of it. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. The latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong southerly winds ahead
of the front, N of 27N between 30W- 45W.

Large, long-period northerly swell is occurring east of the
Bahamas, and will persist into early next week. High pressure is
building in along 28N, and will shift east of the area Sunday
ahead of another cold front moving off northeast Florida coast
late Sunday. Strong to gale force winds are expected on either
side of this front well to the north and northeast of the Bahamas
early next week.

$$

ERA
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