[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302342
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast into the
western Atlantic waters and will bring strong to minimal gale
force winds on either side of the front beginning on 02/0000 UTC
and will continue through 03/1800 UTC. Seas will range from 12-16
ft. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under
the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 07N47W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 03N-10N
between 20W-44W. Near Africa, scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04N-08N E of 14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep ridging continues to prevail over the Gulf with the upper
level ridge centered over the Yucatan Passage. The latest
scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate to
fresh southerly winds across the western Gulf with light to gentle
ESE winds in the eastern basin.

High pressure sliding east of the Gulf is supporting moderate to
fresh winds over the northwest Gulf, off the Yucatan Peninsula and
in the Straits of Florida. A cold front will move off Texas coast
tonight. The front will reach from near Tampa, Florida to Tampico,
Mexico by Sunday night, followed by fresh to strong NW winds over
the northeast Gulf. The front will sweep south of the southeast
Gulf on Monday. High pressure will build over the central Gulf
behind the front through mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening cold front extends from Puerto Rico near 18N66W to
the central Caribbean near 14N77W. Showers are seen along this
boundary. Light showers are noted across the Lesser Antilles.
Otherwise, deep ridging extends across most of the basin which is
inhibiting deep convection. The latest scatterometer data and
surface observations depict moderate to fresh trades in the
central and NW Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere.

High pressure building north of the area behind the cold front
will allow moderate to occasionally fresh northeasterly winds
across most of the Caribbean through tonight, as large northerly
swell reaches the Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean.
Winds will veer more easterly and diminish thereafter as the high
pressure shifts eastward, ahead of another cold front expected to
move into the Yucatan Channel early Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for the developing gale expected
in the western Atlantic.

A weakening cold front in the central Atlantic extends from 31N44W
to 19N64W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near this
boundary from 22N-31N between 38W-47W. An upper level disturbance
moving through the central Atlantic is causing another area of
scattered moderate convection from 19N-26N between 35W-43W. A
surface trough is analyzed from 07N50W to 13N47W with scattered
moderate convection seen along this boundary from 09N-15N between
44W-53W. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin.
The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong southerly
winds ahead of the front, N of 27N between 36W- 45W.

Large, long-period northerly swell is occurring east of the
Bahamas, and will persist into early next week. High pressure is
building in along 28N, and will shift east of the area Sunday
ahead of another cold front moving off northeast Florida coast
late Sunday. Strong to gale force winds are expected on either
side of this front well to the north and northeast of the Bahamas
early next week.

$$
AKR
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