[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291051
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
551 AM EST Fri Nov 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean GALE WARNING...

A cold front moving eastward across the Atlantic waters near
31N58W has minimal gale force winds north of 30N between 56W-60W.
Seas are 12-16 ft. These gale force winds will continue through
30/0000 UTC. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast
under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W from 14N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate showers are within 120 nm
of the wave axis.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W from 09N-15N,
moving W at 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is south of 12N over the SW Caribbean where the wave
axis meets the east Pacific monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 05N30W to the coast of
French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 01N-09N between 24N-41N. Isolated moderate
convection is from 07N-12N between 41W-58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 29/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from the Straits of
Florida near 24N80W to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 24N84W to the NW
Gulf near 29N93W, where it becomes stationary to W of Galveston
Texas near 29N96W to a 1018 low W of Corpus Christi Texas near
28N98W. The stationary front continues southward to Tampico
Mexico near 21N97W. Showers are over the W Gulf W of 94W. Latest
ASCAT data depicts generally moderate breeze winds across most of
the Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of
Campeche and S Mexico from 17N-20N between 94W-96W.

The cold front will move across the eastern Gulf today as it
dissipates over the western Gulf. High pressure will build from
the Carolinas across the eastern Gulf through Sat, allowing fresh
southerly flow over the western Gulf. Another cold front will move
off the Texas coast late Sat, reach from near Tampa Florida to
Tampico Mexico by Sun night, briefly followed by fresh to strong
NW winds over the northeast Gulf. The front will stall and
dissipate from the northwest Caribbean to the southwest Gulf Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands and another is
over the SW Caribbean. See above.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of 12N
over the SW Caribbean mostly due to the east Pacific monsoon
trough. Scattered showers are over the N Caribbean from 15N-20N
and E of 82W. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered
over W Cuba near 23N82W. upper level ridging is W of 70W. An
upper level trough is over the E Caribbean E of 70W. Strong
subsidence is over most of the Caribbean except over the far SW
Caribbean.

A cold front will move across Cuba today before stalling and
dissipating between Haiti and the Yucatan Channel tonight. High
pressure building north of the area behind the front will allow
moderate to occasionally fresh easterly winds across most of the
Caribbean through late Sat, as long period northerly swell reaches
the Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean. The winds
diminish thereafter as the high pressure shifts eastward, ahead of
another cold front expected to move into the Yucatan Channel Tue,
then stall over the northwest Caribbean by late Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above regarding the gale in the
central Atlantic.

As of 29/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N58W to 25N70W to
the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Scattered moderate convection
is ahead of the front N of 28N between 52W-58W. A 1020 mb high is
over the E Atlantic near 30N26W. Of note in the upper levels, an
upper level trough is over the central Atlantic along 47W N of
16N. Isolated moderate convection is from 23N-33N between 39W-48W.
Another upper level trough is over the E Atlantic along 16W N of
18N producing scattered showers over the Canary Islands.

The Atlantic cold front will quickly move across the western
Atlantic through Fri. Strong to near gale force west to northwest
winds following the front will shift east of the area late today.
Associated large northwest to north swell will spread across the
waters east of the Bahamas through Sun evening before subsiding
into Mon. A second cold front will move off the northeast Florida
coast late Sun night and quickly move across the area through Tue
while weakening. Strong to possibly gale force winds are expected
on either side of this front northeast of the Bahamas early next
week.

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net