[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 PM EST Thu Nov 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean GALE WARNING...

A cold front moving eastward across the Atlantic waters will
bring minimal gale force winds to the area north of 30N between
50W-60W beginning at 29/0600 UTC. Seas will reach 12-19 ft. These
gale force winds will continue through 29/1800 UTC. Please refer
to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header
MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57/58W from 14N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate showers are
from 04N-09N between 52W-62W. Isolated showers are possible near
the wave axis north of 12N.

A west-central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79/80W from
09N-15N, moving W at 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is south of 10N where the wave axis meets the east
Pacific monsoon trough.

A tropical wave extends into the Bay of Campeche along 94W from
22N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
seen E of the wave axis over northern Guatemala and W of the wave
axis near the stationary front from 19N-22N between 95W-97W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N13W to
06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 04N37W to 05N52W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-09N between 25N-40N.
Isolated moderate convection is seen from 05N-10N between 42W-56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Sarasota Florida to 28N89W, where it
becomes stationary to a 1019 low near Galveston Texas. The
stationary front continues from Galveston southward to 25N96W to
south of Tampico and inland into Mexico. Showers are seen near the
stationary front in the SW Gulf from 20N-23N between 95W-98W.
Surface ridging extends across the eastern Gulf. Latest ASCAT data
from midday Thursday depicts generally moderate winds across most
of the Gulf.

The cold front in the eastern Gulf will move across the SE Gulf
tonight, while the remainder of the front will transition to a
warm front and dissipate as it lifts back to the north through Fri
night. Winds and seas will diminish across the area through Sat
as weak ridging builds over the northern Gulf waters. A new cold
front will move across the northern Gulf Sun and Sun night and
across the remainder of the Gulf Mon and Mon night. It will be
followed by mainly fresh northerly winds behind it, except for
fresh to strong winds in the NE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough from the central Atlantic extends into the
southeastern Caribbean to northern Colombia. The remainder of the
Caribbean Sea is under the influence of a mid-upper level ridge
with dry air noted in GOES-16 water vapor channels. Isolated
light showers are over portions of the northeast Caribbean, but
the only significant convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean
in association with the tropical wave along 80W and the east
Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
SW of a line from 09N76.5W to 13.5N83.5W, including over Panama,
Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua. The ASCAT pass from late
Thursday morning shows strong trades in the south-central
Caribbean from 10N-15N between 73W-80W.

A weaker pressure gradient through Mon will allow for diminishing
trades to mainly moderate to fresh speeds over much of the basin.
Large north swell on Sat will begin impacting the offshore
Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles and continue through
Tue night while slowly subsiding.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above regarding the developing
gale in the central Atlantic.

As of 28/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from Bermuda to 29N72W to
Stuart Florida. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the
front from 31N-32N between 59W-63W. An upper level trough extends
from near 30N51W to 20N52W to 14N61W to northern Colombia. A
surface trough extends from 31N45W to a 1013 mb low near 26N52W to
18N56W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are within 180 nm
E of the surface trough axis. A 1018 mb high is near 26N35W. An
upper-level low near 24N18W is inducing scattered showers across
the Canary Islands, SW Morocco and northern Western Sahara.

The west Atlantic cold front will quickly move across the western
Atlantic through Fri. Strong to near gale force west to northwest
winds will follow in behind the front. Associated large northwest
to north swell will spread across the waters east of the Bahamas
Fri through Sun evening and subside late Sun night into early Mon.
By Friday night, significant wave heights of 12-18 ft will cover
the area north of 25N between 50W-70W. Shortly after those swells
subside, a second cold front will reach the far northwest waters
on Sun night and quickly move across the area through Tue while
weakening. Strong to possibly gale force winds are expected on
either side of the front northeast of the Bahamas early next week.

$$
Hagen
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