[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281712
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1212 PM EST Thu Nov 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean GALE WARNING...

A cold front moving eastward across the Atlantic waters will
bring minimal gale force winds 30.5N57.5W to 30.5N59W to 31N59.5W
to 31N57.5W to 30.5N57.5W beginning 29/0600 UTC. Seas will reach
11-16 ft. These gale force winds will continue through 30/0600
UTC. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under
the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W from 14N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted along the
wave axis.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W from 17N
southward, moving W at 15 knots. No significant convection is
noted along the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends into the Bay of Campeche along 93W from
22N southward, moving W at 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection
is within 200 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 05N33W to the coast of
northern Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 02N-08N between 26N-39N. Isolated convection is seen along
the ITCZ between 16W-18W in addition to 05N-10N between 44W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the coast of Florida near 29N83W to the
central Atlantic near 29N89W. A 1018 mb low is off the middle
Texas coast near 28N97W and a warm front extends eastward from the
low to the central Gulf near 29N89W. A stationary front also
extends south of the low to the coast of Mexico near 22N97W.
Showers are seen along these boundaries. Surface ridging extends
across the rest of the Gulf. Latest scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf with gentle winds in
the western Gulf.

The eastern portion of the front will move through the southeast
Gulf of Mexico tonight. The rest of the front will continue to
stay stalled and dissipate in the western Gulf of Mexico. The
winds and seas will diminish in the Gulf on Friday and Saturday,
as weak ridging builds in the north part of the Gulf. A new cold
front will move across the N and central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday
and Monday, with enhanced NW to N winds building in behind the
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough from the central Atlantic extends into the
eastern Caribbean to northern Colombia. The NW Caribbean is under
the influence of a upper level ridge. Scattered showers are moving
across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico eastward throughout the Lesser
Antilles. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing
scattered moderate to strong convection is seen in the SW
Caribbean off the Panama and Costa Rica coastline, S of 11N
between 80W-84W. Latest scatterometer data depicts strong winds N
of Colombia, with fresh trades across the western and central
basin. Gentle to moderate trades are seen in the eastern
Caribbean.

A moderate pressure gradient south of the Bermuda High will be
forcing strong across the S central Caribbean Sea, and to near
the coast of Colombia for the rest of the morning hours. A large
extratropical cyclone east of the mid-Atlantic states will reduce
the gradient through Monday, weakening the NE tradewinds to fresh
breezes or less across the Caribbean Sea. Large N swell on
Saturday will begin impacting the offshore Atlantic waters east of
the Lesser Antilles and continue through at least Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above regarding the developing
gale in the central Atlantic.

A cold front is pushing across the western Atlantic, entering the
waters near 31N77W and stretching westward to the coast of Florida
near 29N81W. Showers are seen along this front. An upper level
trough near 53W is stretching across the Atlantic to the eastern
Caribbean. This upper level trough is inducing a 1014 mb surface
low near 25N53W with a trough extending along the low from 19N56W
to 31N44W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near this system
from 20N-31N between 40W-54W. Two more surface troughs are
analyzed in the eastern Atlantic, one from 23N30W to 30N27W and
the second from 21N21W to 26N24W. An upper level low SW of the
Cabo Verde Islands are bringing showers across these islands in
addition to the Western Sahara and southern Morocco. Latest
scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds behind the cold
front in the western Atlantic.

Weakening high pressure across the area will shift eastward
through today in response to an approaching cold front. This cold
front will quickly move across the area through Friday. Enhanced
NW to N wind will be building in behind the front. Associated
large NW to N swell will spread across the area on Saturday, and
it will diminish by early Monday. The winds will become quiescent
from Saturday to early Sunday. A second cold front will reach the
far NW waters on Sunday night. The second cold front will move
across the area through Monday. Strong to possibly gale force
winds are expected on either side of the front, to the northeast
of the Bahamas, early next week.

$$
AKR
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